FL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?

FL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?

Begins in 56 days · Aug 18, 8:00am EDT

$1,773 vol

ALL

Chance

Randy Fine, ≥50%

56%

Randy Fine, ≥50%

56%

Randy Fine, 30-40%

14%

Randy Fine, 30-40%

14%

Dan Bilzerian, 0-5%

4%

Dan Bilzerian, 0-5%

4%

7 more

Important information: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.

Market Rules

Randy Fine, ≥50%

Resolves Yes if the margin of victory for Randy Fine in the 2026 FL-06 Republican primary falls within 50% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.Outcome verified from Florida Secretary of State.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Randy Fine minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Randy Fine if Randy Fine wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Randy Fine loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Randy Fine minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Randy Fine if Randy Fine wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Randy Fine loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Randy Fine minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Randy Fine wins, or the electoral votes received by Randy Fine minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Randy Fine does not.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Randy Fine runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Randy Fine will be summed.

If Randy Fine wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Randy Fine loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Randy Fine ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Randy Fine is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Market openMay 8, 2026 · 8:00pm EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published. Otherwise, it closes by Aug 18, 2027 at 10:00am EDT.

SeriesKXPRIMARYMOV

EventKXPRIMARYMOV-FLPRIMARY06R

MarketKXPRIMARYMOV-FLPRIMARY06R-RFIN-P75

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Primary Elections

United States 2026

Primary Elections

United States 2026