Number of rate cuts in 2025?
Number of rate cuts in 2025?
Exactly 2 cuts
50 bps
No
Exactly 2 cuts
50 bps
No
Exactly 3 cuts
75 bps
Yes
Exactly 3 cuts
75 bps
Yes
Exactly 4 cuts
100 bps
No
Exactly 4 cuts
100 bps
No
12 more
Market Rules
Exactly 0 cuts
If the Fed cuts exactly 0 times before 2026, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on). Note: this detail has been included in past iterations including the previous iteration titled, "Number of rate cuts in 2024?"
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 20, 2024 · 10:00am EST
Market closedSep 18, 2025 · 11:58am EDT
Paid outDec 31, 2025 · 11:00am EST
SeriesKXRATECUTCOUNT
EventKXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31
MarketKXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31-T0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
After two years of multiple interest rate hikes by the FOMC, December's 2023 meeting implied that there may be a reversal going into 2024. Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That's less than what the market had been pricing, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated. The central bank's post-meeting statement noted that 'inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated,' which is a change from the usual sentence simply stating that 'inflation remains elevated.'