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Macroeconomics Odds & Predictions 2026
Economics
GDP
US GDP growth in Q3 2025?
Above 2.5%
Yes
Above 1.0%
Yes
$2,240,243 vol
9 markets
Fed
Will the Fed do a rate cut of more than 25bps in 2025?
Yes
No
$981,049 vol
1 market
Jobs & Economy
Unemployment in December 2025?
Above 4.3%
Yes
Above 4.0%
Yes
$842,236 vol
10 markets
Inflation
How high will the inflation level get in 2025?
At least 3%
Yes
At least 4%
No
$548,519 vol
4 markets
Inflation
State of the economy at the end of 2025?
Soft landing
Yes
High unemployment, low inflation
No
$420,618 vol
4 markets
Inflation
Core inflation in December 2025? (Core CPI YoY)
Above 2.5
Yes
Above 2.4
Yes
$349,572 vol
12 markets
Inflation
CPI core in March 2026
Above 0.1%
Yes
Above 0.0%
Yes
$157,006 vol
8 markets
Economics
Will Trump halve the trade deficit?
Yes
No
$144,359 vol
1 market
Finance
Interest Rates
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by end of year
Yes
7.25
x
13
%
No
1.04
x
87
%
$2,253 vol
1 market
Finance
Will Treasury note yields hit 5% in 2025?
Yes
No
$50,627 vol
1 market
Elections
Elections
November 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
No
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.4%, Non-farm payroll growth: 100-125k
No
$339,493 vol
5 markets
Elections
December 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
U3: >4.6%, NFP: <50k
No
U3: 4.5%, NFP: 50-75k
No
$113,588 vol
14 markets
Macroeconomics Odds & Predictions
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