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Recession Odds & Predictions

Traders and economists can explore prediction markets on recession declarations, GDP growth thresholds, and consumer sentiment shifts. Compare probabilities across labor market data and quarterly economic reports to forecast the timing and likelihood of a downturn in the national economy.

Mentions

What will Powell say during his January press conference?

Good Afternoon
Yes
Renovation
Yes
$4,196,317 vol

What will Powell say during his December 2025 press conference?

Good Afternoon
Yes
Unchanged
Yes
$2,113,402 vol

What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference?

Good Afternoon
Yes
Projection
Yes
$1,391,221 vol

What will JPMorgan say during their next earnings call?

Crypto / Bitcoin
Yes
Regulation
Yes
$421,241 vol

What will The Goldman Sachs say during their next earnings call?

Inflation
Yes
Marcus
Yes
$412,280 vol

What will Wells Fargo say during their next earnings call?

AI / Artificial Intelligence
Yes
Delinquency
Yes
$366,263 vol

What will Andrew Sorkin say during The Late Show with Stephen Colbert?

Nvidia
Yes
Stock Market
Yes
$299,802 vol

What will Bank of America say during their next earnings call?

Inflation
Yes
Delinquency
Yes
$266,216 vol

What will Scott Bessent say during his Press Briefing?

Middle Class
Yes
Manufacturing
Yes
$188,902 vol

What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz’s economic policy contributions?

Administration
Yes
Volcker
Yes
$171,304 vol

What will Scott Bessent say during his remarks at WEF?

Innovation
Yes
GDP
Yes
$160,232 vol

What will RBC say during their next earnings call?

Synergy
Yes
Affordability
Yes
$72,681 vol

What will Larry Fink say during the NYT DealBook Summit?

Private Credit
Yes
Crypto / Bitcoin
Yes
$47,592 vol

What will Scott Bessent say during Face the Nation?

Stock Market
Yes
Biden
Yes
$45,433 vol

What will Jamie Dimon say during the America Business Forum?

Tariff
Yes
Inflation
Yes
$43,678 vol

What will Ken Griffin say during the America Business Forum?

Inflation
Yes
Gold
No
$32,704 vol

What will EU Central Bank President say during the Press Conference?

Tightening
Yes
Anchor / Anchored
Yes
$18,327 vol

Economics

Recession in 2025?

Yes
No
$4,780,801 vol

US GDP growth in Q3 2025?

Above 2.5%
Yes
Above 1.0%
Yes
$2,240,243 vol

Unemployment in December 2025?

Above 4.3%
Yes
Above 4.0%
Yes
$842,236 vol

State of the economy at the end of 2025?

Soft landing
Yes
High unemployment, low inflation
No
$420,618 vol

Unemployment rate in December 2025?

Exactly 4.4%
Yes
Exactly 4.6%
No
$54,060 vol