Will an open-source AI model reach #1 in 2025?
Will an open-source AI model reach #1 in 2025?
$27,936 vol
Order book
No
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Market Rules
The outcome is No
If a open-source LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls).
The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank (UB) metric (unless multiple open-source models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 6, 2025 · 10:00am EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXBESTLLMOS
EventKXBESTLLMOS-26
MarketKXBESTLLMOS-26
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