
| Round | Matchup | Format | Dates | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Wild Card | No. 4 New York Yankees vs No. 5 Boston Red Sox | Best of 3 | Sep 29 – Oct 1 | PROJECTED |
| AL Wild Card | No. 3 Texas Rangers vs No. 6 Chicago White Sox | Best of 3 | Sep 29 – Oct 1 | PROJECTED |
| AL Division Series | No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays vs the winner of the 4 v 5 series | Best of 5 | Oct 3 – Oct 9 | AFTER WILD CARD |
| AL Division Series | No. 2 Cleveland Guardians vs the winner of the 3 v 6 series | Best of 5 | Oct 3 – Oct 9 | AFTER WILD CARD |
| AL Championship Series | a Division Series winner vs the other Division Series winner | Best of 7 | Oct 11 – Oct 19 | AFTER DIVISION SERIES |
| NL Wild Card | No. 4 Chicago Cubs vs No. 5 San Diego Padres | Best of 3 | Sep 29 – Oct 1 | PROJECTED |
| NL Wild Card | No. 3 Atlanta Braves vs No. 6 Philadelphia Phillies | Best of 3 | Sep 29 – Oct 1 | PROJECTED |
| NL Division Series | No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers vs the winner of the 4 v 5 series | Best of 5 | Oct 3 – Oct 9 | AFTER WILD CARD |
| NL Division Series | No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers vs the winner of the 3 v 6 series | Best of 5 | Oct 3 – Oct 9 | AFTER WILD CARD |
| NL Championship Series | a Division Series winner vs the other Division Series winner | Best of 7 | Oct 11 – Oct 19 | AFTER DIVISION SERIES |
| World Series | the American League champion vs the National League champion | Best of 7 | Oct 23 – Oct 31 | AFTER BOTH LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIPS |
| Seed | Team | Route | Pennant | World Series | 7d change | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | Division winner | 29% | 10% | +1pp | Trade |
| 2 | Cleveland Guardians | Division winner | 16% | 4% | +2pp | Trade |
| 3 | Texas Rangers | Division winner | 8% | 2% | +1pp | Trade |
| 4 | New York Yankees | Wild card | 21% | 9% | −3pp | Trade |
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | Wild card | 14% | 5% | +1pp | Trade |
| 6 | Chicago White Sox | Wild card | 10% | 2% | −1pp | Trade |
| Seed | Team | Route | Pennant | World Series | 7d change | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | Division winner | 28% | 16% | 0pp | Trade |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Division winner | 41% | 31% | −2pp | Trade |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | Division winner | 13% | 6% | 0pp | Trade |
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | Wild card | 9% | 5% | 0pp | Trade |
| 5 | San Diego Padres | Wild card | 8% | 5% | +2pp | Trade |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | Wild card | 9% | 5% | −1pp | Trade |
Twelve clubs reach the MLB postseason — six from each league. The three division winners are seeded 1–3 by record and the three wild cards 4–6, and every division winner is seeded above every wild card: a 100-win wild card is still the No. 4 seed behind an 84-win division champion.
The top two seeds in each league get a bye straight to the Division Series. The other four play a best-of-three Wild Card Series — 3 v 6 and 4 v 5 — with all three games at the higher seed's park. There is no reseeding afterwards, so the bracket is fixed from the start: the No. 1 seed plays whoever comes out of 4 v 5, and the No. 2 seed plays whoever comes out of 3 v 6.
The seeds here are read from the clubs' own records, which is what MLB seeds by. The three division leaders take 1–3 in record order and the next three records take the wild cards. What that does not mean is that the bracket is settled: these are the seeds as of the last update, and a single weekend can move a division leader into a wild card. Every card is labelled "PROJECTED" for that reason, not because the seeds are guesswork.
6 of the twelve clubs shown are in the field as a matter of record rather than of projection — either the exchange has graded and paid out their playoff-qualifier contract, or their record can no longer be caught for a place. Where they are seeded still moves with the results.
One market on this page prices a pairing directly rather than by inference. Kalshi's "First Playoff Opponent" family asks who a given club will actually face first, including a line for it missing the postseason entirely — so where that market exists it is the best available check on the bracket above, and the two disagreeing is information rather than a bug.
Round dates come from MLB's published postseason calendar. Every figure here is a market probability rather than a forecast we produce: while a contract is open it comes from Kalshi's order book and moves when traders move it, and once the exchange has graded one it carries that settled result instead.