2026 NFL MVP Odds
Live odds for the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award, read from Kalshi's MVP market. Josh Allen leads at 31%, ahead of Joe Burrow (17%) and Brock Purdy (16%), from a field of 49 priced contenders. The AP announces the winner at NFL Honors, the week of Super Bowl LXI.
Live marketUpdated Thursday, Oct 29, 2026 · 1:57 AM ET
Where these odds come from: Each figure is the market price of that contender’s contract — the mid-market quote where the book is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a forecast from Kalshi; they are what traders are paying.
Favorite31%Josh Allen
Biggest 7-day rise+11ppJoe Burrow, 6% → 17%
Biggest 7-day drop−11ppBrock Purdy, 27% → 16%
Contenders priced49One contract per player
2025 MVPMatthew StaffordLast season’s winner
MVP oddsTop 20 of 49 priced contenders. 7d is the move in percentage points over the last seven days.
2026 NFL MVP odds, best price first
| Contender | Odds | 7d | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen | 31% | +2pp | Yes 31¢ |
Joe Burrow | 17% | +11pp | Yes 17¢ |
Brock Purdy | 16% | −11pp | Yes 16¢ |
Caleb Williams | 7% | +5pp | Yes 7¢ |
Trevor Lawrence | 6% | +1pp | Yes 6¢ |
Drake Maye | 5% | −1pp | Yes 5¢ |
Jared Goff | 5% | +3pp | Yes 5¢ |
Patrick Mahomes | 4% | −4pp | Yes 4¢ |
Jordan Love | 3% | 0pp | Yes 3¢ |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2% | +1pp | Yes 2¢ |
Kenneth Walker | 2% | −1pp | Yes 2¢ |
Lamar Jackson | 2% | 0pp | Yes 2¢ |
A.J. Brown | <1% | 0pp | Yes 1¢ |
Aaron Rodgers | <1% | 0pp | Yes 1¢ |
Ashton Jeanty | <1% | 0pp | Yes 1¢ |
Baker Mayfield | <1% | 0pp | Yes 1¢ |
Bijan Robinson | <1% | 0pp | Yes 1¢ |
Bo Nix | <1% | 0pp | Yes 1¢ |
Bryce Young | <1% | −1pp | Yes 1¢ |
Cam Ward | <1% | 0pp | Yes 1¢ |
The productionThe 20 best-priced contenders with a line, each by the touchdowns he has accounted for this season so far, among contenders with at least 3 games played — thrown, run and caught — against his price to win the award.
Touchdowns in 2026 so far vs. MVP price
Touchdowns in 2026 so far vs. MVP price
The vertical axis is square-root scaled.
The top 5 on priceTheir touchdowns in 2026 so far — thrown, run and caught.
- Josh Allen17 TD31% MVP · BUF · 6 GPYes 31¢
- Joe Burrow16 TD17% MVP · CIN · 6 GPYes 17¢
- Brock Purdy16 TD16% MVP · SF · 7 GPYes 16¢
- Caleb Williams7 TD7% MVP · CHI · 4 GPYes 7¢
- Trevor Lawrence14 TD6% MVP · JAC · 6 GPYes 6¢
Outside the top 5 on priceThe most touchdowns among contenders the market is not leading with.
- Drake Maye15 TD5% MVP · NE · 7 GPYes 5¢
- Jared Goff15 TD5% MVP · DET · 6 GPYes 5¢
- Jordan Love14 TD3% MVP · GB · 7 GPYes 3¢
- Aaron Rodgers13 TD<1% MVP · PIT · 7 GPYes 1¢
- Bryce Young13 TD<1% MVP · CAR · 6 GPYes 1¢
Last seven daysJoe Burrow gained the most, up 11 points to 17%. Brock Purdy fell furthest, down 11 points to 16%. Six contenders on the board gained a point or more over the last seven days and five lost one or more.
NFL MVP odds movers this week
Rising
- Joe Burrow6% → 17%+11pp
- Caleb Williams2% → 7%+5pp
- Jared Goff2% → 5%+3pp
- Josh Allen29% → 31%+2pp
- Trevor Lawrence5% → 6%+1pp
Falling
- Brock Purdy27% → 16%−11pp
- Patrick Mahomes8% → 4%−4pp
- Drake Maye6% → 5%−1pp
- Kenneth Walker3% → 2%−1pp
- Bryce Young2% → <1%−1pp
The award
About the NFL MVP
The NFL Most Valuable Player award is the Associated Press's, voted on by a national panel of media members. Only the regular season counts — ballots are cast before the playoffs — and the winner is announced at NFL Honors, the week of the Super Bowl. For the 2026 season that is the week of Super Bowl LXI.Each Kalshi contract resolves Yes if its player wins the AP's regular-season MVP award. Any player in the league is eligible, and the market lists a separate contract for each contender it is pricing — 49 on this book.Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP award.
Method
How Kalshi's MVP odds work
Every figure here is a live Kalshi market price. A contract on the 2026 NFL MVP pays out at 100¢ if that player wins the award and nothing if he does not, so its price in cents reads directly as the market's implied chance in percent.Each of the 49 contracts is priced on its own order book — the middle of the book where it is tight, the last trade where it is wide — and nothing is scaled, so the column can add up to a little either side of 100%. The board is ordered by the exact price, so two contenders a fraction of a point apart keep their places between refreshes.The 7d column is the move in percentage points since the same time last week. Award prices move most on results, injuries and the weekly highlight reel; they are market prices, not a forecast by Kalshi.The board shows the top 20. The 29 left off are longshots at or near a cent; every one of them is on the market page.The production chart joins each contract to the player it resolves for, then to his line for this season from the league's statistics, summed over every club he played for. Touchdowns accounted for counts passing, rushing and receiving touchdowns together, because it is the one count that means the same thing for a quarterback, a back and a receiver. It describes what a contender has done, not what the vote will reward.
FAQ
NFL MVP odds questions
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Josh Allen leads at 31% on Kalshi, ahead of Joe Burrow (17%) and Brock Purdy (16%). Those are market prices, not a Kalshi forecast, and they move with every trade.
Who won the last NFL MVP?
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP award.
Whose MVP odds moved the most this week?
Joe Burrow rose the most over the last seven days, from 6% to 17%. Brock Purdy fell the most, from 27% to 16%.
When is the NFL MVP announced?
At NFL Honors, the awards show held the week of the Super Bowl. For the 2026 season that is the week of Super Bowl LXI. Only the regular season counts toward the vote.
How are Kalshi’s NFL MVP odds calculated?
They are market prices. Each contender has a contract that pays $1 if he wins the award, so what traders pay for it reads directly as an implied percentage. Where the bid and ask are close the page shows the midpoint; otherwise it shows the last trade.
Can you trade on the NFL MVP on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi's MVP market lists a Yes/No contract on each of the 49 contenders it prices. A Yes contract pays $1 if that player wins the award; a No contract pays $1 if he doesn't. Trading on the market involves risk.