NFL Power Rankings
All 32 NFL teams ranked by the Kalshi Power Score, combining championship and conference markets, team record, performance against the market's prior expectation and the market-implied strength of upcoming opponents.
Preseason · Market-impliedUpdated Saturday, Aug 22, 2026 · 6:24 PM ET
Ranking method: Preseason rankings use each team's 2025 record and the latest Kalshi market prices.
Market-implied rankingPower Score is normalized to 0–100. Neutral-field rating estimates the points a team would be favored by against an average opponent; the next-game column is Kalshi's current win probability. Preseason, 2026.
2026 NFL market-implied power rankings
32 teams
Kalshi market viewEach team's latest prices. Expand a row to open the exact Kalshi markets behind its Power Score.
Championship and conference prices
| Team | Championship | Conference | Sources | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16% | 23% | Trade | |
 | 8% | 16% | Trade | |
 | 7% | 13% | Trade | |
 | 8% | 13% | Trade | |
 | 5% | 11% | Trade | |
 | 6% | 12% | Trade | |
 | 5% | 10% | Trade | |
 | 5% | 10% | Trade | |
 | 5% | 9% | Trade | |
 | 5% | 9% | Trade | |
 | 5% | 10% | Trade | |
 | 4% | 9% | Trade | |
 | 3% | 7% | Trade | |
 | 4% | 8% | Trade | |
 | 5% | 9% | Trade | |
 | 5% | 9% | Trade | |
 | 4% | 8% | Trade | |
 | 2% | 3% | Trade | |
 | 2% | 4% | Trade | |
 | <1% | 2% | Trade | |
 | 2% | 3% | Trade | |
 | 2% | 4% | Trade | |
 | <1% | 2% | Trade | |
 | 2% | 3% | Trade | |
 | <1% | 2% | Trade | |
 | 2% | 3% | Trade | |
 | <1% | <1% | Trade | |
 | <1% | <1% | Trade | |
 | <1% | <1% | Trade | |
 | <1% | <1% | Trade | |
 | <1% | 2% | Trade | |
 | <1% | <1% | Trade | |
MethodologyThe Power Score combines futures prices, team performance and game-level market expectations in a single 0–100 rating.
How the Kalshi Power Score works
40%Super Bowl probabilityScaled to the current market leader.
20%Conference probabilityScaled within the relevant conference.
Season contextRecordPrevious season before Week 1, current season afterward.15% of the score
Recent performancePrevious game adjustmentPerformance compared with the prior market expectation.5% of the score
Upcoming matchupNext game adjustmentImplied spread plus the opponent baseline, averaged over the up-to-3 games Kalshi prices.20% of the score
1 · Implied spreadSpread = Φ⁻¹(win %) × 13.5NFL final margins scatter about 13.5 points around the spread, so inverting that curve turns a 64% price into a +4.8 favorite. Home field — worth about 2 points — is then taken back out.
2 · Opponent contextRating = implied spread + opponent baselineThe result estimates the points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field.
Power rankings built from prices, not pundits
Most NFL power rankings are one writer’s judgment, or an average of expert ballots. This one starts somewhere else: with what people are actually willing to risk money on. Every input is a live Kalshi price — the chance a team wins its conference, the chance it wins the championship, and the chance it wins its next game.A price on a single game is turned into a point spread, then adjusted for who the opponent is, which is what makes teams on completely unrelated schedules comparable. Record and the market’s last miss supply the context prices alone can’t: how good a team has actually been, and where the market has recently been wrong about it.The result is a 0–100 Power Score that moves when prices move, when results land, and when the market changes its mind about a team’s next opponent — not when a columnist does.Upcoming matchupsThe next slate Kalshi prices. Each result, and every price change before it, feeds back into the Power Score.
Games that can move the rankings
NE at SEAWeek 1 · Sep 9 · 8:20 PM ET64%SEA winLAR vs SFWeek 1 · Sep 10 · 8:35 PM ET38%SF winATL at PITWeek 1 · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET60%PIT winBAL at INDWeek 1 · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET37%IND winBUF at HOUWeek 1 · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET50%HOU winCHI at CARWeek 1 · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET42%CAR winCLE at JACWeek 1 · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET77%JAC winNO at DETWeek 1 · Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET76%DET win
Team hubsEvery team's own page: markets, record, roster, schedule and playoff odds.
All 32 NFL teams
- Arizona Cardinals
- Atlanta Falcons
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Carolina Panthers
- Chicago Bears
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
- Dallas Cowboys
- Denver Broncos
- Detroit Lions
- Green Bay Packers
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Miami Dolphins
- Minnesota Vikings
- New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints
- New York Giants
- New York Jets
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- San Francisco 49ers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tennessee Titans
- Washington Commanders
FAQ
NFL power ranking questions
What are the Kalshi NFL Power Rankings?
All 32 NFL teams ranked by the Kalshi Power Score, a 0–100 rating built from live prediction-market prices rather than expert ballots. It combines Kalshi's championship and conference markets, each team's record, its last result against the market's expectation, and the market's prices on its upcoming games.
How is the Kalshi Power Score calculated?
Championship probability carries 40% of the score and conference probability 20%, each scaled against the market leader. The market-implied rating from the upcoming games Kalshi prices — up to 3 of them, averaged — carries 20%, the team's record 15%, and its performance against the previous game's price 5%. Every team is rated on a 0–100 scale.
Which NFL team is ranked number one right now?
Los Angeles Rams, with a Power Score of 89.8 and a market-implied neutral-field rating of +6.3. Kalshi prices them at 16% to win the championship.
What is the market-implied neutral-field rating?
It estimates how many points a team would be favored by against an average opponent on a neutral field. Kalshi's win probability for an upcoming game is converted into a point spread using the 13.5-point scatter of NFL final margins, home field is removed, and the opponent's own strength is added on top. Where Kalshi prices more than one upcoming game — up to 3 — the ratings are averaged, since there is no full-season slate to read instead.
Why can a team move before it plays?
Kalshi prices react to injuries, roster news and changes in an upcoming opponent’s outlook. Because those prices feed the Power Score, a team can move before the standings do.
What record is used during the preseason?
Before current-season results exist, the rankings use each team's 2025 regular-season record. Once the season begins, the page switches to the current record automatically.
How often are the NFL Power Rankings updated?
The rankings refresh as the underlying Kalshi market prices change and as games settle. The latest update time appears at the top of the page — currently Saturday, Aug 22, 2026 · 6:24 PM ET.