NFL Power Rankings
All 32 NFL teams ranked by the Kalshi Power Score after Week 3 — 65% live Kalshi playoff, conference and championship market prices, 35% what each team has done on the field, adjusted for the schedule it did it against.
Regular season · Week 4Updated Saturday, Oct 3, 2026 · 6:16 PM ET
Ranking method: Week 4 rankings combine the latest Kalshi playoff, conference and championship market prices with each team's schedule-adjusted on-field record.
Market-implied rankingThe Power Score is normalized to 0–100. The on-field column is the schedule-adjusted performance composite it weights at 35%; the playoffs column is Kalshi's live qualification price. Week 4, 2026.
2026 NFL power rankings after Week 3
32 teams
Kalshi market viewEach team's latest prices. Expand a row to open the exact Kalshi markets behind its Power Score.
Playoff, conference and championship prices
Methodology65% live Kalshi prices, 35% schedule-adjusted on-field performance, in a single 0–100 rating.
How the Kalshi Power Score works
24%Playoff qualificationKalshi's price on this team reaching the playoffs, entering the market blend at face value.Settles when the field is set, and is kept at its settled value.
16%Conference championshipIts price to win the AFC or the NFC — the other half of how far the market expects it to get.
25%Super Bowl probabilityIts price to win it all — the one market with a whole postseason left to run.Rises to 35% once the field is set.
35%On-field performanceWin percentage, point differential, the Pythagorean win rate and the last 5 games, each adjusted for schedule.Eases to 25% once the field is set.
1 · The market blend24% playoffs + 16% conference + 25% titlePrices enter the blend as probabilities rather than as a curve fitted to them: a team priced at 80% to reach the playoffs puts 80 of the 100 points that component is worth into its blend, and no market is rescaled to its own leader. The blend is then scaled across the league in the next step.
2 · Scaled across the league100 × (blend − league low) ÷ (league high − league low)The best-priced team's blend becomes 100 and the least-priced team's 0, the same way each on-field metric is scaled. Absolute probabilities compress — most of a 32-team championship field sits in single digits — so without this step the market half spanned a fraction of the 65% it is worth. Both ends are re-pinned on every update, so a move by the team at either end moves everybody; a league with no spread scores 50.
3 · The on-field half40% win% + 30% point diff + 20% Pythagorean + 10% formThe Pythagorean term uses the NFL exponent of 2.37 and says what share of its games a team's points should have won, whatever it actually won. The four are scaled across the league and floored at 12, so the worst team in football still reads as a team.
4 · Schedule adjustmentmetric + 50 × (opponent win % ÷ league mean − 1)Each on-field metric is re-centred on who the team has actually played, so an unbeaten record against a soft schedule is worth less than a good one against a hard schedule. Every team facing the same schedule relative to the league moves the same number of points, wherever it sits, and the metric is scaled across the league again afterwards. Early on the factor is regressed toward .500 with 5 games of prior, since a Week 1 opponent's record is a one-game sample.
Power rankings built from prices, not pundits
Most NFL power rankings are one writer’s judgment, or an average of expert ballots. This one starts somewhere else: with what people are actually willing to risk money on. 65% of the Power Score is live Kalshi prices — the chance a team reaches the playoffs, the chance it wins its conference and the chance it wins the championship — each entering a single blend as the probability it already is, with the blend then scaled across the league so the best-priced team sets the top of that half and the least-priced the bottom.The other 35% is the part no market prices: what the team has done on the field. Win percentage, point differential, the Pythagorean win rate and the last 5 games, each re-centred on the schedule it was played against, so an unbeaten run through a soft draw is not mistaken for the same thing as a hard-won 6-4.The result is a 0–100 score that moves when prices move and when results land — not when a columnist does. Nobody votes, nothing is revised on a Tuesday, and the same arithmetic runs for all 32 teams every time the page is built.Week 4 matchupsThe Week 4 slate Kalshi prices. These game prices are not inputs to the Power Score — a game reaches it once it settles, as a result in recent form, and by moving the futures markets the score is built from.
Games that can move the rankings
IND vs WASWeek 4 · Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET35%WAS winARI at NYGWeek 4 · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET43%NYG winDAL at HOUWeek 4 · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET59%HOU winGB at TBWeek 4 · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET40%TB winJAC at CINWeek 4 · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET57%CIN winLAR at PHIWeek 4 · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET37%PHI winNE at BUFWeek 4 · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET74%BUF winNYJ at CHIWeek 4 · Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET64%CHI win
Team hubsEvery team's own page: markets, record, roster, schedule and playoff odds.
All 32 NFL teams
- Arizona Cardinals
- Atlanta Falcons
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Carolina Panthers
- Chicago Bears
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
- Dallas Cowboys
- Denver Broncos
- Detroit Lions
- Green Bay Packers
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Miami Dolphins
- Minnesota Vikings
- New England Patriots
- New Orleans NOLA Saints
- New York Giants
- New York Jets
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- San Francisco 49ers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tennessee Titans
- Washington Commanders
FAQ
NFL power ranking questions
What are the Kalshi NFL Power Rankings?
All 32 NFL teams ranked by the Kalshi Power Score, a 0–100 rating built from live prediction-market prices and on-field results rather than expert ballots. 65% of it is Kalshi's playoff, conference and championship market prices; the remaining 35% is what the team has actually done on the field, adjusted for the schedule it did it against.
How is the Kalshi Power Score calculated?
Playoff qualification carries 24% of the score, conference probability 16% and championship probability 25% — each entering a single blend as the price itself, and the blend is then scaled across the league so the best-priced team is 100 and the least-priced 0. The remaining 35% is an on-field composite: 40% win percentage, 30% point differential, 20% the Pythagorean win expectation and 10% form over the last 5 games, each one adjusted for strength of schedule and scaled across the league. Every team is rated on a 0–100 scale.
Which NFL team is ranked number one right now?
Buffalo Bills, with a Power Score of 92.1 and an on-field score of 77.3. Kalshi prices them at 13% to win the championship.
What is the on-field score?
A 0–100 measure of what a team has done this season, independent of any price. It blends win percentage, point differential per game, the Pythagorean win expectation at the NFL exponent of 2.37, and win percentage over the last 5 games. Each metric is re-centred on the average record of the opponents the team has faced, so the same 6-4 is worth more against a hard schedule than a soft one, and the composite is floored at 12 rather than bottoming out at zero. Before Week 1 every team carries the same on-field score, because there is nothing yet to separate them by.
Why is a team’s championship price so much smaller than its playoff price?
Because they are different questions, and the Power Score does not disguise that. Fourteen of 32 teams make the playoffs and one wins the championship, so qualification prices run high while championship prices sit in single digits for most of the league. Each enters the blend as the probability it is — no market is rescaled to its own leader — so a championship price stays small next to a playoff price. It is the blend of the three that is then scaled across the league, which keeps the score a statement about the league rather than about the shape of a particular market.
Why can a team move before it plays?
Kalshi prices react to injuries, roster news and results elsewhere in the league. Because those prices are 65% of the score, a team can move before the standings do — and because both the market blend and the on-field metrics are scaled across the league, it can also move when another team’s prices or season change.
Which record is used?
The rankings use each team's 2026 record. Before a season opens, when every standings row still reads 0-0, the previous season's record is shown instead and the on-field component is a flat constant for the whole league.
How often are the NFL Power Rankings updated?
The rankings refresh as the underlying Kalshi market prices change and as games settle. The latest update time appears at the top of the page — currently Saturday, Oct 3, 2026 · 6:16 PM ET.