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  5. Playoff Picture

NFL Playoff Picture

The Week 8 playoff picture combines the league's current conference seeding with Kalshi's market-implied chance that each team makes the postseason.
Regular season · Week 9Updated today at 10:18 AM ET
Seeding: Seeds are the league's own conference seeding through Week 8: division leaders hold 1–4 and the next three conference records hold 5–7, tiebroken by the NFL's own procedures. Kalshi prices are shown beside the field, not used to order it.
Current field

2026 NFL Playoff Picture After Week 8

The seven-team cutoff shows who is currently in the field. Every remaining team stays visible below it.

AFC playoff picture

16 teams · 7 playoff positions
Current AFC playoff seeding, with each team's 2026 record, division position and playoff status. The top 7 positions are the playoff field.
Pos.Team2026 recordDivisionStatus
1Buffalo Bills7-11st · AFC EastDivision leader
2Denver Broncos7-21st · AFC WestDivision leader
3Jacksonville Jaguars6-21st · AFC SouthDivision leader
4Pittsburgh Steelers6-21st · AFC NorthDivision leader
5Kansas City Chiefs6-22nd · AFC WestWild card
6Cincinnati Bengals6-22nd · AFC NorthWild card
7New England Patriots5-42nd · AFC EastWild card
8Cleveland Browns5-43rd · AFC NorthFirst team out
9Las Vegas Raiders4-53rd · AFC WestOutside playoff field
10Baltimore Ravens4-54th · AFC NorthOutside playoff field
11Houston Texans3-52nd · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
12New York Jets2-73rd · AFC EastOutside playoff field
13Indianapolis Colts2-73rd · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
14Miami Dolphins1-74th · AFC EastOutside playoff field
15Tennessee Titans1-74th · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
16Los Angeles Chargers0-84th · AFC WestOutside playoff field
  • Playoff field
  • First team out
  • Outside field

NFC playoff picture

16 teams · 7 playoff positions
Current NFC playoff seeding, with each team's 2026 record, division position and playoff status. The top 7 positions are the playoff field.
Pos.Team2026 recordDivisionStatus
1San Francisco 49ers7-11st · NFC WestDivision leader
2Chicago Bears7-21st · NFC NorthDivision leader
3New York Giants5-2-11st · NFC EastDivision leader
4Carolina Panthers3-51st · NFC SouthDivision leader
5Detroit Lions6-22nd · NFC NorthWild card
6Minnesota Vikings6-23rd · NFC NorthWild card
7Green Bay Packers6-34th · NFC NorthWild card
8Seattle Seahawks5-42nd · NFC WestFirst team out
9Los Angeles Rams5-43rd · NFC WestOutside playoff field
10Dallas Cowboys4-52nd · NFC EastOutside playoff field
11New Orleans Saints3-52nd · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
12Tampa Bay Buccaneers3-63rd · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
13Atlanta Falcons3-64th · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
14Arizona Cardinals3-64th · NFC WestOutside playoff field
15Washington Commanders2-5-13rd · NFC EastOutside playoff field
16Philadelphia Eagles2-74th · NFC EastOutside playoff field
  • Playoff field
  • First team out
  • Outside field
Start vs. the market

Does the market believe the start?

Each team’s win rate so far against the win rate Kalshi’s win-total market implies for its remaining games. Up and to the left: a slow start the market expects to turn around. Down and to the right: a fast start it expects to fade.
The market believes+33 ptsThe Los Angeles Chargers are 0-8, but the market prices them to win 33% of their games from here
The market doubts−23 ptsThe Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-2, but the market prices them to win 52% of their games from here
Best projected finish13.2 winsWhat the win-total market expects the Buffalo Bills, 7-1 so far, to finish with
2026 season · As of Nov 11, 2026

NFL records so far vs. the market’s view of the rest

Market’s win rate for the games left →
Turnaround comingSlow start, strong finish
The real dealFast start, strong finish
More of the sameSlow start, weak finish
Regression comingFast start, weak finish
20%30%40%50%60%70%0%20%40%60%80%100%ChargersLos Angeles Chargers0-8 so far (0%)33% expected from here3.0 projected wins2% to make the playoffsTexansHouston Texans3-5 so far (38%)63% expected from here8.7 projected wins42% to make the playoffsBuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers3-6 so far (33%)54% expected from here7.3 projected wins38% to make the playoffsWashington Commanders2-5-1 so far (25%)44% expected from here6.0 projected wins10% to make the playoffsIndianapolis Colts2-7 so far (22%)38% expected from here5.0 projected wins2% to make the playoffsTennessee Titans1-7 so far (13%)28% expected from here3.5 projected wins2% to make the playoffsNew York Jets2-7 so far (22%)35% expected from here4.8 projected wins2% to make the playoffsAtlanta Falcons3-6 so far (33%)45% expected from here6.6 projected wins18% to make the playoffsPhiladelphia Eagles2-7 so far (22%)34% expected from here4.7 projected wins4% to make the playoffsMiami Dolphins1-7 so far (13%)21% expected from here2.9 projected wins1% to make the playoffsCarolina Panthers3-5 so far (38%)46% expected from here7.1 projected wins31% to make the playoffsSeattle Seahawks5-4 so far (56%)61% expected from here9.9 projected wins56% to make the playoffsDallas Cowboys4-5 so far (44%)50% expected from here8.0 projected wins29% to make the playoffsNew Orleans Saints3-5 so far (38%)40% expected from here6.6 projected wins21% to make the playoffsLos Angeles Rams5-4 so far (56%)58% expected from here9.6 projected wins45% to make the playoffsBaltimore Ravens4-5 so far (44%)45% expected from here7.6 projected wins16% to make the playoffsNew England Patriots5-4 so far (56%)55% expected from here9.4 projected wins63% to make the playoffsArizona Cardinals3-6 so far (33%)33% expected from here5.6 projected wins2% to make the playoffsLas Vegas Raiders4-5 so far (44%)40% expected from here7.2 projected wins13% to make the playoffsJacksonville Jaguars6-2 so far (75%)70% expected from here12.3 projected wins96% to make the playoffsGreen Bay Packers6-3 so far (67%)59% expected from here10.7 projected wins65% to make the playoffsCincinnati Bengals6-2 so far (75%)67% expected from here12.0 projected wins93% to make the playoffsDenver Broncos7-2 so far (78%)66% expected from here12.3 projected wins92% to make the playoffsChicago Bears7-2 so far (78%)63% expected from here12.0 projected wins89% to make the playoffsCleveland Browns5-4 so far (56%)40% expected from here8.2 projected wins24% to make the playoffsKansas City Chiefs6-2 so far (75%)59% expected from here11.3 projected wins92% to make the playoffsNew York Giants5-2-1 so far (63%)44% expected from here9.0 projected wins65% to make the playoffsDetroit Lions6-2 so far (75%)57% expected from here11.1 projected wins77% to make the playoffsBuffalo Bills7-1 so far (88%)69% expected from here13.2 projected wins98% to make the playoffsVikingsMinnesota Vikings6-2 so far (75%)54% expected from here10.9 projected wins70% to make the playoffs49ersSan Francisco 49ers7-1 so far (88%)67% expected from here13.0 projected wins98% to make the playoffsSteelersPittsburgh Steelers6-2 so far (75%)52% expected from here10.7 projected wins73% to make the playoffs
Win rate so far →
Swipe sideways to see the whole chart →
Dashed lines are league medians: 51% expected from here, 50% won so far.
The market believesTeams priced to win more of their remaining games than they have so far
  1. 1Los Angeles Chargers33% from here0-8 so far · 2% playoffsYes 2¢
  2. 2Houston Texans63% from here3-5 so far · 42% playoffsYes 42¢
  3. 3Tampa Bay Buccaneers54% from here3-6 so far · 38% playoffsYes 38¢
  4. 4Washington Commanders44% from here2-5-1 so far · 10% playoffsYes 10¢
  5. 5Indianapolis Colts38% from here2-7 so far · 2% playoffsYes 2¢
The market doubtsTeams priced to win fewer of their remaining games than they have so far
  1. 1Pittsburgh Steelers52% from here6-2 so far · 73% playoffsYes 73¢
  2. 2San Francisco 49ers67% from here7-1 so far · 98% playoffsYes 98¢
  3. 3Minnesota Vikings54% from here6-2 so far · 70% playoffsYes 70¢
  4. 4Buffalo Bills69% from here7-1 so far · 98% playoffsYes 98¢
  5. 5Detroit Lions57% from here6-2 so far · 77% playoffsYes 77¢
Kalshi market view

Market-implied playoff odds

See the latest make-the-playoffs prices and seven-day movement. Expand any row to open that team's Kalshi markets.

AFC markets

Kalshi make-the-playoffs prices for every AFC team, with the seven-day move and the markets behind each number.
Team2026 recordPlayoff odds7d changeSourceTrade
Buffalo Bills7-198%+4ppTrade
Denver Broncos7-292%+4ppTrade
Jacksonville Jaguars6-296%+3ppTrade
Pittsburgh Steelers6-273%0ppTrade
Kansas City Chiefs6-292%+5ppTrade
Cincinnati Bengals6-293%+10ppTrade
New England Patriots5-463%−13ppTrade
Cleveland Browns5-424%−9ppTrade
Las Vegas Raiders4-513%−9ppTrade
Baltimore Ravens4-516%+4ppTrade
Houston Texans3-542%+9ppTrade
New York Jets2-72%+1ppTrade
Indianapolis Colts2-72%−2ppTrade
Miami Dolphins1-71%−1ppTrade
Tennessee Titans1-72%−1ppTrade
Los Angeles Chargers0-82%+1ppTrade

NFC markets

Kalshi make-the-playoffs prices for every NFC team, with the seven-day move and the markets behind each number.
Team2026 recordPlayoff odds7d changeSourceTrade
San Francisco 49ers7-198%+4ppTrade
Chicago Bears7-289%+2ppTrade
New York Giants5-2-165%+5ppTrade
Carolina Panthers3-531%−2ppTrade
Detroit Lions6-277%+1ppTrade
Minnesota Vikings6-270%−2ppTrade
Green Bay Packers6-365%+12ppTrade
Seattle Seahawks5-456%+1ppTrade
Los Angeles Rams5-445%−10ppTrade
Dallas Cowboys4-529%−3ppTrade
New Orleans Saints3-521%+3ppTrade
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3-638%+1ppTrade
Atlanta Falcons3-618%−8ppTrade
Arizona Cardinals3-62%−3ppTrade
Washington Commanders2-5-110%−11ppTrade
Philadelphia Eagles2-74%−1ppTrade
How it works

How to read the NFL playoff picture

Seven teams from each conference make the NFL playoffs: four division winners and three wild cards. The highest-seeded team receives a first-round bye, while seeds two through seven form the opening-round matchups. The yellow line after seed seven separates the playoff field from the rest of the conference.Once games have been played the field is the league's own seeding rather than a forecast: division leaders hold the top four seeds, the next three conference records hold the wild cards, and ties are broken by the NFL's own procedures. Kalshi's prices sit beside that field rather than deciding it.Prices can move before the standings do. The field and the Kalshi probabilities are shown separately so a team's current position and its chance of actually making the playoffs can be compared side by side.The start chart reads Kalshi’s win-total ladder for each team — a contract for every number of wins from one to seventeen. The prices add up to the wins the market expects over the whole season, and the rungs a team has already reached have paid out, so that total includes its record. Taking away the wins already in hand leaves the wins the market expects from the games still to play, and dividing by those games gives the win rate on the chart. Early in the season a single result swings a team’s rate so far by twenty points or more, which is exactly when the market and the record disagree most.
FAQ

NFL playoff picture questions

How many NFL teams make the playoffs?
Fourteen teams make the postseason: seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC. Each conference sends four division winners and three wild-card teams. The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye.
How are NFL playoff seeds determined?
Division winners take seeds one through four, ordered by record and the NFL's tiebreaking procedures. The next three best conference records receive wild-card seeds five through seven. Kalshi prices do not change official seeding — the field above is the league’s own order, with the market’s probabilities beside it.
What does the preseason playoff picture show?
Before current-season standings exist, Kalshi's division-title prices identify the projected division winners, market-implied win totals order those four teams, and make-the-playoffs prices select and rank the projected wild cards. Every remaining team is listed in market order below the cutoff.
What does 'first team out' mean?
The first team out is the highest-ranked team immediately below the last playoff position. On this page it is the next team in the league’s conference seeding; where the field is projected instead, it is the next team in the market-implied order.
How often do Kalshi playoff odds update?
The odds on this page refresh as the underlying Kalshi market prices change, and the field follows the league's standings as games settle. The latest update time appears at the top of the page — currently Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 · 10:18 AM ET.
Which NFL team does the market expect to turn its season around?
The Los Angeles Chargers. They are 0-8, winning 0% of their games, but Kalshi's win-total market prices them to win about 33% of the games they have left, for 3.0 wins this season.
Related NFL pages

Continue exploring the playoff race

The markets this field is read from, and the rest of Kalshi's NFL coverage.
NFL power rankingsNFL playoff oddsSuper Bowl oddsNFL standingsNFL matchupsAll NFL marketsNFL Playoff Qualifiers
Team hubs

Every team in the playoff picture

Explore the latest markets and forecasts for all 32 teams.
  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Chicago Bears
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Denver Broncos
  • Detroit Lions
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Houston Texans
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Las Vegas Raiders
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • New England Patriots
  • New Orleans Saints
  • New York Giants
  • New York Jets
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Tennessee Titans
  • Washington Commanders
NFL playoff markets

Will this team make the playoffs?

Buy Yes if you think the team qualifies. Buy No if you think it won't.
  • Buffalo Bills98%
    Yes 98¢No 3¢
  • San Francisco 49ers98%
    Yes 98¢No 3¢
  • Jacksonville Jaguars96%
    Yes 96¢No 5¢
  • Cincinnati Bengals93%
    Yes 93¢No 8¢
  • Denver Broncos92%
    Yes 93¢No 9¢
See all 32 teams