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  5. Playoff Picture

NFL Playoff Picture

The Week 5 playoff picture combines the league's current conference seeding with Kalshi's market-implied chance that each team makes the postseason.
Regular season · Week 6Updated Thursday, Oct 22, 2026 · 9:21 AM ET
Seeding: Seeds are the league's own conference seeding through Week 5: division leaders hold 1–4 and the next three conference records hold 5–7, tiebroken by the NFL's own procedures. Kalshi prices are shown beside the field, not used to order it.
Current field

2026 NFL Playoff Picture After Week 5

The seven-team cutoff shows who is currently in the field. Every remaining team stays visible below it.

AFC playoff picture

16 teams · 7 playoff positions
Current AFC playoff seeding, with each team's 2026 record, division position and playoff status. The top 7 positions are the playoff field.
Pos.Team2026 recordDivisionStatus
1Kansas City Chiefs5-01st · AFC WestDivision leader
2Buffalo Bills5-11st · AFC EastDivision leader
3Jacksonville Jaguars4-21st · AFC SouthDivision leader
4Cleveland Browns4-21st · AFC NorthDivision leader
5New England Patriots4-22nd · AFC EastWild card
6Denver Broncos4-22nd · AFC WestWild card
7Pittsburgh Steelers4-22nd · AFC NorthWild card
8Baltimore Ravens4-23rd · AFC NorthFirst team out
9Cincinnati Bengals3-24th · AFC NorthOutside playoff field
10Las Vegas Raiders3-33rd · AFC WestOutside playoff field
11New York Jets2-43rd · AFC EastOutside playoff field
12Indianapolis Colts2-42nd · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
13Houston Texans2-43rd · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
14Tennessee Titans1-54th · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
15Miami Dolphins0-54th · AFC EastOutside playoff field
16Los Angeles Chargers0-64th · AFC WestOutside playoff field
  • Playoff field
  • First team out
  • Outside field

NFC playoff picture

16 teams · 7 playoff positions
Current NFC playoff seeding, with each team's 2026 record, division position and playoff status. The top 7 positions are the playoff field.
Pos.Team2026 recordDivisionStatus
1San Francisco 49ers6-01st · NFC WestDivision leader
2Minnesota Vikings5-01st · NFC NorthDivision leader
3Carolina Panthers3-21st · NFC SouthDivision leader
4New York Giants3-2-11st · NFC EastDivision leader
5Green Bay Packers4-22nd · NFC NorthWild card
6Chicago Bears4-23rd · NFC NorthWild card
7Detroit Lions3-24th · NFC NorthWild card
8Seattle Seahawks3-32nd · NFC WestFirst team out
9Atlanta Falcons2-42nd · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
10New Orleans Saints2-43rd · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
11Los Angeles Rams2-44th · NFC WestOutside playoff field
12Philadelphia Eagles2-42nd · NFC EastOutside playoff field
13Dallas Cowboys2-43rd · NFC EastOutside playoff field
14Arizona Cardinals2-43rd · NFC WestOutside playoff field
15Washington Commanders1-4-14th · NFC EastOutside playoff field
16Tampa Bay Buccaneers1-54th · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
  • Playoff field
  • First team out
  • Outside field
Start vs. the market

Does the market believe the start?

Each team’s win rate so far against the win rate Kalshi’s win-total market implies for its remaining games. Up and to the left: a slow start the market expects to turn around. Down and to the right: a fast start it expects to fade.
The market believes+39 ptsThe Los Angeles Chargers are 0-6, but the market prices them to win 39% of their games from here
The market doubts−47 ptsThe Minnesota Vikings are 5-0, but the market prices them to win 53% of their games from here
Best projected finish13.2 winsWhat the win-total market expects the San Francisco 49ers, 6-0 so far, to finish with
2026 season · As of Oct 22, 2026

NFL records so far vs. the market’s view of the rest

Market’s win rate for the games left →
Turnaround comingSlow start, strong finish
The real dealFast start, strong finish
More of the sameSlow start, weak finish
Regression comingFast start, weak finish
20%30%40%50%60%70%0%20%40%60%80%100%ChargersLos Angeles Chargers0-6 so far (0%)39% expected from here4.3 projected wins2% to make the playoffsTexansHouston Texans2-4 so far (33%)65% expected from here9.1 projected wins48% to make the playoffsRamsLos Angeles Rams2-4 so far (33%)64% expected from here9.0 projected wins50% to make the playoffsWashington Commanders1-4-1 so far (17%)45% expected from here6.0 projected wins17% to make the playoffsTampa Bay Buccaneers1-5 so far (17%)44% expected from here5.8 projected wins14% to make the playoffsMiami Dolphins0-5 so far (0%)23% expected from here2.7 projected wins1% to make the playoffsDallas Cowboys2-4 so far (33%)55% expected from here8.1 projected wins51% to make the playoffsSeattle Seahawks3-3 so far (50%)63% expected from here9.9 projected wins62% to make the playoffsAtlanta Falcons2-4 so far (33%)45% expected from here7.0 projected wins23% to make the playoffsTennessee Titans1-5 so far (17%)28% expected from here4.1 projected wins2% to make the playoffsIndianapolis Colts2-4 so far (33%)45% expected from here6.9 projected wins9% to make the playoffsNew Orleans Saints2-4 so far (33%)44% expected from here6.8 projected wins22% to make the playoffsPhiladelphia Eagles2-4 so far (33%)40% expected from here6.4 projected wins15% to make the playoffsNew York Jets2-4 so far (33%)38% expected from here6.2 projected wins6% to make the playoffsCincinnati Bengals3-2 so far (60%)60% expected from here10.2 projected wins64% to make the playoffsArizona Cardinals2-4 so far (33%)33% expected from here5.6 projected wins4% to make the playoffsDetroit Lions3-2 so far (60%)59% expected from here10.1 projected wins64% to make the playoffsJacksonville Jaguars4-2 so far (67%)63% expected from here10.9 projected wins81% to make the playoffsBaltimore Ravens4-2 so far (67%)61% expected from here10.7 projected wins76% to make the playoffsLas Vegas Raiders3-3 so far (50%)43% expected from here7.7 projected wins24% to make the playoffsDenver Broncos4-2 so far (67%)59% expected from here10.5 projected wins71% to make the playoffsChicago Bears4-2 so far (67%)58% expected from here10.4 projected wins68% to make the playoffsNew England Patriots4-2 so far (67%)58% expected from here10.4 projected wins75% to make the playoffsCarolina Panthers3-2 so far (60%)48% expected from here8.8 projected wins57% to make the playoffsNew York Giants3-2-1 so far (50%)37% expected from here7.1 projected wins32% to make the playoffsGreen Bay Packers4-2 so far (67%)51% expected from here9.6 projected wins57% to make the playoffsBuffalo Bills5-1 so far (83%)66% expected from here12.3 projected wins94% to make the playoffsPittsburgh Steelers4-2 so far (67%)47% expected from here9.2 projected wins44% to make the playoffsCleveland Browns4-2 so far (67%)39% expected from here8.3 projected wins32% to make the playoffs49ersSan Francisco 49ers6-0 so far (100%)65% expected from here13.2 projected wins97% to make the playoffsChiefsKansas City Chiefs5-0 so far (100%)61% expected from here12.3 projected wins94% to make the playoffsVikingsMinnesota Vikings5-0 so far (100%)53% expected from here11.4 projected wins82% to make the playoffs
Win rate so far →
Swipe sideways to see the whole chart →
Dashed lines are league medians: 50% expected from here, 50% won so far.
The market believesTeams priced to win more of their remaining games than they have so far
  1. 1Los Angeles Chargers39% from here0-6 so far · 2% playoffsYes 2¢
  2. 2Houston Texans65% from here2-4 so far · 48% playoffsYes 49¢
  3. 3Los Angeles Rams64% from here2-4 so far · 50% playoffsYes 50¢
  4. 4Washington Commanders45% from here1-4-1 so far · 17% playoffsYes 17¢
  5. 5Tampa Bay Buccaneers44% from here1-5 so far · 14% playoffsYes 14¢
The market doubtsTeams priced to win fewer of their remaining games than they have so far
  1. 1Minnesota Vikings53% from here5-0 so far · 82% playoffsYes 82¢
  2. 2Kansas City Chiefs61% from here5-0 so far · 94% playoffsYes 95¢
  3. 3San Francisco 49ers65% from here6-0 so far · 97% playoffsYes 97¢
  4. 4Cleveland Browns39% from here4-2 so far · 32% playoffsYes 32¢
  5. 5Pittsburgh Steelers47% from here4-2 so far · 44% playoffsYes 44¢
Kalshi market view

Market-implied playoff odds

See the latest make-the-playoffs prices and seven-day movement. Expand any row to open that team's Kalshi markets.

AFC markets

Kalshi make-the-playoffs prices for every AFC team, with the seven-day move and the markets behind each number.
Team2026 recordPlayoff odds7d changeSourceTrade
Kansas City Chiefs5-094%+4ppTrade
Buffalo Bills5-194%+3ppTrade
Jacksonville Jaguars4-281%−4ppTrade
Cleveland Browns4-232%+13ppTrade
New England Patriots4-275%+3ppTrade
Denver Broncos4-271%+4ppTrade
Pittsburgh Steelers4-244%+9ppTrade
Baltimore Ravens4-276%−9ppTrade
Cincinnati Bengals3-264%−2ppTrade
Las Vegas Raiders3-324%−7ppTrade
New York Jets2-46%−6ppTrade
Indianapolis Colts2-49%−19ppTrade
Houston Texans2-448%+13ppTrade
Tennessee Titans1-52%+1ppTrade
Miami Dolphins0-51%0ppTrade
Los Angeles Chargers0-62%−3ppTrade

NFC markets

Kalshi make-the-playoffs prices for every NFC team, with the seven-day move and the markets behind each number.
Team2026 recordPlayoff odds7d changeSourceTrade
San Francisco 49ers6-097%+4ppTrade
Minnesota Vikings5-082%+3ppTrade
Carolina Panthers3-257%+13ppTrade
New York Giants3-2-132%+4ppTrade
Green Bay Packers4-257%+20ppTrade
Chicago Bears4-268%+12ppTrade
Detroit Lions3-264%+1ppTrade
Seattle Seahawks3-362%−7ppTrade
Atlanta Falcons2-423%−11ppTrade
New Orleans Saints2-422%−2ppTrade
Los Angeles Rams2-450%−20ppTrade
Philadelphia Eagles2-415%−23ppTrade
Dallas Cowboys2-451%+3ppTrade
Arizona Cardinals2-44%+3ppTrade
Washington Commanders1-4-117%+3ppTrade
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1-514%−4ppTrade
How it works

How to read the NFL playoff picture

Seven teams from each conference make the NFL playoffs: four division winners and three wild cards. The highest-seeded team receives a first-round bye, while seeds two through seven form the opening-round matchups. The yellow line after seed seven separates the playoff field from the rest of the conference.Once games have been played the field is the league's own seeding rather than a forecast: division leaders hold the top four seeds, the next three conference records hold the wild cards, and ties are broken by the NFL's own procedures. Kalshi's prices sit beside that field rather than deciding it.Prices can move before the standings do. The field and the Kalshi probabilities are shown separately so a team's current position and its chance of actually making the playoffs can be compared side by side.The start chart reads Kalshi’s win-total ladder for each team — a contract for every number of wins from one to seventeen. The prices add up to the wins the market expects over the whole season, and the rungs a team has already reached have paid out, so that total includes its record. Taking away the wins already in hand leaves the wins the market expects from the games still to play, and dividing by those games gives the win rate on the chart. Early in the season a single result swings a team’s rate so far by twenty points or more, which is exactly when the market and the record disagree most.
FAQ

NFL playoff picture questions

How many NFL teams make the playoffs?
Fourteen teams make the postseason: seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC. Each conference sends four division winners and three wild-card teams. The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye.
How are NFL playoff seeds determined?
Division winners take seeds one through four, ordered by record and the NFL's tiebreaking procedures. The next three best conference records receive wild-card seeds five through seven. Kalshi prices do not change official seeding — the field above is the league’s own order, with the market’s probabilities beside it.
What does the preseason playoff picture show?
Before current-season standings exist, Kalshi's division-title prices identify the projected division winners, market-implied win totals order those four teams, and make-the-playoffs prices select and rank the projected wild cards. Every remaining team is listed in market order below the cutoff.
What does 'first team out' mean?
The first team out is the highest-ranked team immediately below the last playoff position. On this page it is the next team in the league’s conference seeding; where the field is projected instead, it is the next team in the market-implied order.
How often do Kalshi playoff odds update?
The odds on this page refresh as the underlying Kalshi market prices change, and the field follows the league's standings as games settle. The latest update time appears at the top of the page — currently Thursday, Oct 22, 2026 · 9:21 AM ET.
Which NFL team does the market expect to turn its season around?
The Los Angeles Chargers. They are 0-6, winning 0% of their games, but Kalshi's win-total market prices them to win about 39% of the games they have left, for 4.3 wins this season.
Related NFL pages

Continue exploring the playoff race

The markets this field is read from, and the rest of Kalshi's NFL coverage.
NFL power rankingsNFL standingsNFL matchupsAll NFL marketsNFL Playoff Qualifiers
Team hubs

Every team in the playoff picture

Explore the latest markets and forecasts for all 32 teams.
  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Chicago Bears
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Denver Broncos
  • Detroit Lions
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Houston Texans
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Las Vegas Raiders
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • New England Patriots
  • New Orleans Saints
  • New York Giants
  • New York Jets
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Tennessee Titans
  • Washington Commanders
NFL playoff markets

Will this team make the playoffs?

Buy Yes if you think the team qualifies. Buy No if you think it won't.
  • San Francisco 49ers97%
    Yes 97¢No 4¢
  • Buffalo Bills94%
    Yes 96¢No 8¢
  • Kansas City Chiefs94%
    Yes 95¢No 8¢
  • Minnesota Vikings82%
    Yes 82¢No 19¢
  • Jacksonville Jaguars81%
    Yes 81¢No 20¢
See all 32 teams