Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Begins on Tuesday · Nov 3, 8:00am EST
Chance
Democrats sweep
64%
▲ 1
Democrats sweep
64%
▲ 1
D-House, R-Senate
29%
▲ 2
D-House, R-Senate
29%
▲ 2
Republicans sweep
9%
▼ 0.6
Republicans sweep
9%
▼ 0.6
R-House, D-Senate
0.8%
▲ 0.1
R-House, D-Senate
0.8%
▲ 0.1
2026 Midterm Election Predictions
On November 3, 2026, voters choose all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. Kalshi traders give a Democratic sweep of both chambers a 64% chance, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate 29%, and a Republican sweep 9%.
Follow control of each chamber and the races that decide it below.
Control of Congress
Top races
Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedTexas Governor race: Abbott vs. HinojosaIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsOhio Governor race: Acton vs. RamaswamyNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. Hamilton
More races
New Hampshire Governor race: Ayotte vs. WarmingtonKentucky Senate race: Barr vs. BookerNew Jersey Senate race: Booker vs. MurphyKansas Governor race: Masterson vs. HolscherMaine Governor race: Pingree vs. CharlesAlabama Governor race: Tuberville vs. JonesAlaska Governor raceNew Mexico Governor race: Haaland vs. HullLouisiana Senate race: Letlow vs. DavisConnecticut Governor race: Lamont vs. Fazio
Frequently asked questions
Understanding the market
4 questions
What is Kalshi's 2026 Congress Balance of Power market?
Kalshi is an event-contract exchange subject to CFTC oversight. Its Congress Balance of Power market lets you trade which combination of parties will control the House and Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. Each listed combination is a separate Yes-or-No contract. A winning contract pays $1 at settlement and a losing contract pays $0, under the applicable rules. See the Congress Balance of Power market, how Kalshi is regulated and the combination contract terms.
What do the four possible outcomes mean?
"Democrats sweep" means Democratic control of both chambers. "Republicans sweep" means Republican control of both. "D-House, R-Senate" means a Democratic House and Republican Senate. "R-House, D-Senate" means a Republican House and Democratic Senate. Each combination requires both conditions. A sweep here refers to Congress; it does not include the presidency. See the Congress Balance of Power market and the combination contract terms.
How does this differ from trading House or Senate control separately?
A House control contract concerns only the House; a Senate control contract concerns only the Senate. A Balance of Power contract requires the specified combination of both chambers. Buying two separate contracts creates two positions that settle individually, so one can win while the other loses. A combined Yes contract pays only when both conditions are met. Use the separate House or Senate market if your view concerns only one chamber. See the House control market and the Senate control market.
What do Yes and No mean, and when will my order fill?
Yes means the named House-and-Senate combination occurs. No means that exact combination does not occur; it does not identify a particular alternative. An order fills when matching interest is available at a price permitted by your order. A limit buy order sets your maximum price. It can fill fully, partly or not at all. Check filled quantities separately from resting orders. See how limit orders work.
Odds and pricing
4 questions
What are the current odds for each outcome?
As of October 27, 2026, 2:45 p.m. ET, Kalshi shows Democrats sweep at 64%, D-House, R-Senate at 28%, Republicans sweep at 9%, and R-House, D-Senate at 1%. These market-implied probabilities change as trading continues. The price available for your order can differ from the displayed probability; review the order preview before confirming. See the Congress Balance of Power market.
What does a contract's price mean, and how does its payout work?
A Yes price of 60 cents implies roughly a 60% chance of that combination occurring. As an illustration, buying 100 Yes contracts at 60 cents costs $60 before fees. If the combination resolves Yes, those contracts pay $100, a $40 gain before fees. If it resolves No, they pay $0 and you lose the $60 purchase cost plus fees. Payout is different from profit. See Kalshi's guide to prediction markets and Kalshi's fee schedule.
How are these probabilities determined, and how reliable are they?
Prices come from members trading with one another. Kalshi Research studied 2,243,741 resolved markets across 11 categories from 2021 through mid-2026. Across the analyzed markets excluding Exotics, it reported Brier scores improving from about 0.08–0.09 three months before resolution to about 0.02 at close. Lower scores mean smaller probability forecast errors. These are aggregate historical results, not an accuracy score for this unresolved Congress outcome. A 70% market probability expresses a likelihood, not a guarantee or a 70% share of voters. See Kalshi's calibration study.
Why can the displayed probabilities add up to more than 100%?
Each combination has its own buy and sell quotes. Adding the prices to buy Yes on all four outcomes can exceed $1 because of bid-ask spreads. Rounding and updates at different times can also affect displayed totals. The bid is a buying offer, the ask is a selling offer, and their difference is the spread. Compare the same quote type at the same time. See the Congress Balance of Power market.
Following the market
2 questions
Can I follow the odds and historical changes without trading?
Yes. You can view the Congress Balance of Power market page without an account or a trade. Bookmark it to follow the four combinations and use the chart's 1D, 1W and ALL ranges to inspect changes. You do not need to buy a contract to read the displayed probabilities or follow the linked House, Senate and individual-race markets. See the Congress Balance of Power market.
How much has been traded, and how does volume differ from liquidity?
As of October 27, 2026, 2:45 p.m. ET, the Congress Balance of Power event shows $59 million in trading volume. Volume measures completed trading over time. Liquidity concerns the prices and quantities available to trade now. A large historical volume does not guarantee your order will fill at the displayed price. Check the current quotes, spread and available quantity for your chosen combination. See the Congress Balance of Power market.
Before you trade
4 questions
Who is not eligible to trade these contracts?
You must be at least 18 and meet Kalshi's general account eligibility requirements. For election contracts specifically, the contract terms also prohibit trading by candidates on the ballot, campaign staff, political party officials, and anyone in possession of material non-public information about the election outcome. These restrictions apply regardless of account status. If any of these conditions applies to you, do not trade this market. Review the applicable contract terms and Kalshi's eligibility requirements before opening or maintaining a position. See the combination contract terms, who is prohibited from trading and Kalshi's guide to signing up.
How do I open and fund an account, and how much do I need?
Create a Kalshi account, provide the requested personal information and complete any required identity verification. You must be at least 18 and meet account eligibility and market trading restrictions. Once approved, choose an available method in Transfers, such as a bank transfer or debit card. The minimum deposit is $10, except wires, which require $1,000. A deposit minimum is not a minimum trade size. Your order cost depends on quantity, price and fees. See Kalshi's guide to signing up.
What fees apply, how much can I earn, and what can I lose?
Trading fees depend on price, quantity and the applicable fee schedule. Review the fee shown before confirming. Under the standard taker formula, 100 contracts bought at 60 cents incur a $1.68 fee: $61.68 total cost for a potential $100 settlement payout. A winning position therefore gains $38.32; a losing position loses $61.68. This example excludes funding costs and any later sale. Kalshi lists no settlement fee. Check the current schedule for maker fees, exceptions and changes. See Kalshi's fee schedule.
What are the risks of trading, and is this investment advice?
Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. You can lose the full amount you spend on a position. A contract that resolves against your position pays $0, and your purchase cost plus any fees are not returned. Past market accuracy, historical volume, and displayed probabilities do not guarantee any outcome or protect against loss. Nothing on this page or on Kalshi's platform constitutes investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. Make your own assessment of the risks before trading. See Kalshi's regulatory disclosures and Kalshi's fee schedule.
How to trade
5 questions
How do I trade House and Senate control together?
Open Congress Balance of Power and select the combination that matches your view. Choose Yes if you expect both named conditions to occur, or No if you expect that combination not to occur. Enter your order size and review the price, total cost, fees and rules before submitting. Your order creates a position only when it fills. See the Congress Balance of Power market and how limit orders work.
How do I trade a Democratic or Republican sweep?
Select "Democrats sweep" to trade Democratic control of both the House and Senate, or "Republicans sweep" for Republican control of both. Buying Yes requires both chambers to match that outcome. Buying No expresses the view that the selected sweep will not occur. No on a Democratic sweep is not the same as Yes on a Republican sweep: either split-Congress result would also prevent a Democratic sweep. See the Congress Balance of Power market and the combination contract terms.
How do I trade a Democratic House and Republican Senate?
Select "D-House, R-Senate" and choose Yes. The contract pays $1 per Yes contract only if House control is Democratic and Senate control is Republican under the rules. If either condition fails, Yes pays $0. Review the current price, order size and fees before submitting. See the Congress Balance of Power market.
How do I trade a Republican House and Democratic Senate?
Select "R-House, D-Senate" and choose Yes. Both Republican House control and Democratic Senate control must occur under the rules for Yes to pay $1 per contract. Getting one chamber right is insufficient. Prices and available quantities can change before your order fills. See the Congress Balance of Power market.
Can I sell before settlement?
You can attempt to sell while trading is open, subject to market status and available buyers. Review the quantity, price and fees before submitting. A sell order can fill fully, partly or not at all. A limit sell sets the minimum price you will accept. Your sale proceeds can be less than your purchase cost, and a displayed position value does not guarantee an executable sale. See how limit orders work.
Timeline and settlement
4 questions
When does trading close, when is the result determined, and when are payouts available?
Election Day is November 3, 2026. The current contract data lists February 1, 2027 at 10:00 a.m. ET as the scheduled trading close and expected expiration, with latest expiration on February 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET. It can close earlier under its rules. Close, expiration and settlement are separate milestones. Winning payouts reach your cash balance after settlement, not automatically on Election Night. Check the current schedule and status on the market. See the Congress Balance of Power market and the combination contract terms.
Exactly how does Kalshi determine which party controls each chamber?
Under the CONTROL rules, House control follows the Speaker's party and Senate control follows the President Pro Tempore's party at expiration, using congress.gov. Accelerated resolution is permitted when at least four designated media sources declare the winner and none contradicts it. Both chamber conditions must be satisfied for the combination to resolve Yes. See the CONTROL contract terms and the combination contract terms.
What happens with ties, independents, vacancies or delayed results?
If seat counts are tied, the settlement test remains the Speaker's party for the House and the President Pro Tempore's party for the Senate. For independent members, CONTROL considers their caucus decisions. For vacancies or delayed results, if the expiration value cannot be determined at expiration, the combination terms authorize Kalshi to determine payouts through Rule 7.1. Any required component resolving No or becoming impossible makes the entire combination No; both must resolve Yes for the combination to be Yes. A pending result alone does not establish either outcome. See the combination contract terms and the CONTROL contract terms.
Which sources determine settlement, and where are the full rules?
Read the market's rules together with the combination contract terms and the CONTROL terms for its House and Senate components. The event names United States Congress as its settlement source. The CONTROL terms explain designated media sources for accelerated resolution. These documents govern the result and exceptions. See the combination contract terms and the CONTROL contract terms.
Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Democrats sweep
Odds
66% chanceMax payout
Feb 1, 2027