GPT-4.5 released in Q2 2024?
GPT-4.5 released in Q2 2024?
$11,098 vol
Market Rules
The outcome is This Contract is designed to capture the release of an GPT model that represents a change over a base model in a similar manner that GPT3.5 was to GPT3. This would be something that is more than the many iterations on existing models (e.g. GPT’s Turbo models), not GPT5, and also not a specific, niche model with a particular use-case rather than a more general model. GPT4o shares those characteristics with GPT3.5. Moreover, when GPT3.5 was released, it created a new subclass of models, rather than merely being an additional iteration on GPT3; OpenAI consistently identifies GPT4o in a similar manner (e.g. repeatedly here: https://platform.openai.com/docs/models, and here: https://platform.openai.com/overview) and describes it as its new flagship model. Like GPT3.5, 4o also has a unique training dataset compared to GPT4 or previous iterations rather than just working of previous ones, and includes a variety of performance upgrades, including multimodality and (as claimed by OpenAI) 2x faster text generation over GPT4-Turbo. 4o was released to the public on Monday, May 13, even if not all of its features are readily available yet. Thus, GPT4o is a successor to GPT4 in the same way that GPT3.5 was to GPT3.
If GPT-4.5 has been released to the public by Jun 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI.
Timeline and payout
Market openMar 31, 2024 · 10:00am EDT
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
SeriesKXGPT4P5
EventGPT4P5-Q2
MarketGPT4P5-Q2-24JUN30
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
As we approach the one-year anniversary of the release of OpenAI's GPT-4, speculation is growing about the possibility of a newer version. However, despite rumors of a stealth rollout, there has been no official news. When can we expect the release of the newest version of this groundbreaking Large Language Model?