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IL-16 House Winner? 2026 Race Odds: LaHood vs. Nolley | Kalshi

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House

IL-16 House winner?

Resolves by winning party

100

Nolley

Nov 3 ·R +17.7margin forecast

LaHood

$42,674 vol

Chance

Darin LaHood

Republican party

96.2%

▲ 1.5

Darin LaHood

Republican party

96.2%

▲ 1.5

Paul Nolley

Democratic party

3.8%

▼ 1.5

Paul Nolley

Democratic party

3.8%

▼ 1.5

Race Intel

IL-16 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election

IncumbentDarin LaHood (R)Running for re-election

IL-16 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors

Darin LaHoodR
$4.2M
2.3%
$4.2M raised·2.3% small donors
Paul NolleyD
$415.7K
26%
$415.7K raised·26% small donors

Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past IL-16 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +22.7%2020R +21.5%

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Illinois's 16th District margin of victory

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Illinois 16 House General Election: voter turnout

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IL-16 House election: Darin LaHood vote percent

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IL-16 House election: Paul Nolley vote percent

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Texas Senate winner?

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Who will control the House?

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Texas Governor winner?

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Kansas Senate winner?

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Who will control the Senate?

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California Governor winner? (Person)

More Illinois and 2026 Midterm Races

More Illinois races

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Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?

IL-16 House winner?

Paul Nolley

Dollars$

Odds

5% chance

Max payout

Nov 3, 2027

$0

Which party will win the House?

Congress balance of power

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