Popular vote margin of victory?
Popular vote margin of victory?
Trump by 0-0.99%
No
Trump by 0-0.99%
No
Trump by 1-1.99%
Yes
Trump by 1-1.99%
Yes
Trump by 2-2.99%
No
Trump by 2-2.99%
No
More markets
Market Rules
Harris by 9% or more
Resolves Yes if the popular vote margin of victory is 9.00% or more for Kamala Harris or another representative of the Democratic party in the 2024 election.Outcome verified from United States Congress.
If a candidate has won but has a margin that rounds to 0.00 (for example, winning by one vote), then that would resolve the bracket that has the winning candidate 0.00-0.49% as Yes.
Timeline and payout
Market openOct 7, 2024 · 8:15am EDT
Market closedJan 6, 2025 · 1:59pm EST
Paid outJan 7, 2025 · 10:00am EST
SeriesPOPVOTEMOV
EventPOPVOTEMOV-24
MarketPOPVOTEMOV-24-D-T9.00
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
- Paid campaign staffers on Presidential campaigns.
- Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Presidential campaigns
- Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Republican National Committee.
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and “Super PACs” (independent expenditure only political committees).
- Paid employees of major polling organizations.
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Office of the President of the United States.
- All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States.
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.