Climate

Climate change

June temperature increase?

1.10 to 1.16

1.73x

1.03 to 1.09

2.66x

$16,131 vol6 markets

Climate

What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?

2.0°C to 2.4°C

2.05x

2.5°C to 2.9°C

2.81x

$2,425 vol5 markets

Climate change

This June is the hottest June ever?

Yes

31.2x

1.01x

$16,382 vol1 market

Climate change

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Yes

3.96x

1.26x

$147,062 vol1 market

Climate change

US meets its climate goals?

By 2030

5.90x

By 2025

15.6x

$56,815 vol2 markets

Climate change

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Yes

1.23x

3.80x

$14,870 vol1 market

Climate change

India meets its 2030 climate goals?

Yes

1.42x

2.52x

$10,806 vol1 market

Climate change

EU meets its 2030 climate goals?

Yes

2.01x

1.73x

$3,334 vol1 market

Climate change

Arctic sea ice maximum extent this winter?

Above 14.2 million sq km

Yes

Above 14.3 million sq km

Yes

$202,902 vol9 markets

Climate change

Global heat in 2023?

1.11° or above

Yes

1.08° to 1.1°

$128,610 vol10 markets

Climate change

Arctic sea ice min extent, Feb 17 to Oct 1, 2023?

Below 4.3 million sq km

Yes

Below 4.4 million sq km

Yes

$91,769 vol8 markets

Climate change

Lake Mead water level projections, Start of 2023?

1045 feet or below

Yes

1050 feet or below

Yes

$61,934 vol6 markets

Climate

When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

Before Jul 1, 2026

Yes

Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes

$21,881 vol5 markets

Climate change

Tsunami before 2026?

Yes

$14,128 vol1 market

Climate change

US CO2 totals in June 2021?

Yes

$11,573 vol1 market

Climate change

Arctic sea ice from Nov 19 to Dec 31, 2022?

Yes

$8,814 vol1 market

Politics

Local

Will any state enact a data center moratorium this year?

Yes

1.90x

1.86x

$4,735 vol1 market

Climate Change Odds & Predictions