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2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
2026
Midterm Election Predictions
Overview
Senate
House
Governor
States
My Ballot
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Referendums
Senate
House
Governor
The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power.
Learn more
More markets
Senate control forecast
DEM
REP
100%
Safe Dem
House control forecast
DEM
REP
100%
Safe Dem
Featured
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Nov 3
Nithya Raman
100%
Karen Bass
0%
$142,571,382 vol
Mississippi Senate winner?
Live
Colom
97%
Hyde-Smith
3%
Projected margin
D +0.6
Alaska Senate winner?
Live
Democratic
95%
Republican
5%
NY-17 House winner?
Live
Conley
100%
Lawler
0%
Projected margin
D +6.3
NC-03 House winner?
Live
Smith
67%
Murphy
33%
Kansas Governor winner?
Live
Holscher
100%
Masterson
0%
VA-05 House winner?
Live
Perriello
1%
McGuire
99%
Projected margin
R +2.4
MT-01 House winner?
Live
Forstag
100%
Flint
0%
NC-13 House winner?
Live
Barringer
100%
Knott
0%
VA-01 House winner?
Live
Taylor
100%
Wittman
0%
TN-09 House winner?
Live
Pearson
0%
Taylor
100%
Show all 11 markets
85 events
Market
Pays out
Odds
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
LIVE
Mayor
$142,512,019 vol
Nithya Raman
1.01
x
99
%
Karen Bass
--
0
%
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)
LIVE
US Elections
$111,784 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
1.62
x
75
%
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
1.19
x
33
%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
·
US Elections
$77,459 vol
No, ≥10%
1.90
x
40
%
No, ≥7%
1.19
x
77
%
Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities this year?
LIVE
US Elections
$35,719 vol
Utah Senate
1.04
x
96
%
Arizona House
46.8
x
1
%
Blue wave this year?
LIVE
Senate
$12,633,859 vol
Yes
1.01
x
99
%
No
93.5
x
1
%
Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities this year?
LIVE
US Elections
$34,923 vol
Washington House
1.08
x
28
%
Vermont House
1.04
x
45
%
Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?
·
Referendums
$180,376 vol
Proposition 135
1.02
x
96
%
Proposition 136
31.2
x
1
%
North Carolina State Senate winner?
·
US Elections
$108,910 vol
Republican party
1.02
x
17
%
Democratic party
23.4
x
4
%
Blue tsunami this year?
LIVE
Senate
$3,249,811 vol
Yes
1.01
x
99
%
No
93.5
x
1
%
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
·
US Elections
$4,113,785 vol
Yes
93.5
x
1
%
No
1.01
x
99
%
Which ballot measures will pass in California?
LIVE
Referendums
$81,164 vol
Proposition 4
4.13
x
31
%
Proposition 5
1.13
x
84
%
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
LIVE
Senate
$1,370,339 vol
Yes
1.01
x
98
%
No
46.8
x
2
%
Texas State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$460,803 vol
Republican party
1.01
x
98
%
Democratic party
46.8
x
1
%
Georgia State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$14,942 vol
Republican party
1.06
x
82
%
Democratic party
13.4
x
6
%
Alaska State House winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$9,957 vol
Democratic party
1.70
x
21
%
Republican party
1.70
x
1
%
Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?
·
Referendums
$48,114 vol
Question 7
4.73
x
6
%
Question 5
46.8
x
2
%
New York City mayoral election winner?
·
US Elections
$20,172 vol
Zohran Mamdani
1.13
x
87
%
Eric Adams
18.8
x
5
%
Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?
·
Referendums
$79,733 vol
Proposition 320
1.86
x
21
%
Proposition 144
46.8
x
3
%
How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress this year?
LIVE
Mixed Combos
$27,021 vol
At least 3
1.06
x
49
%
At least 5
1.05
x
96
%
Which ballot measures will pass in San Francisco?
LIVE
Referendums
$3,646 vol
Proposition I
1.40
x
24
%
Proposition G
46.8
x
1
%
New Hampshire State House winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$14,027 vol
Democratic party
1.03
x
90
%
Republican party
18.8
x
3
%
Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?
·
Referendums
$25,131 vol
Economic & Infrastructure Bond
46.8
x
2
%
Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond
1.67
x
14
%
Michigan State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$58,166 vol
Democratic party
--
99
%
Republican party
93.5
x
2
%
New Hampshire State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$44,928 vol
Democratic party
1.06
x
85
%
Republican party
46.8
x
1
%
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