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  1. House

MA-04 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Jake Auchincloss
Democratic party
97.1%

Jake Auchincloss

Democratic party
97.1%
Tom Stalcup
Republican party
2.9%

Tom Stalcup

Republican party
2.9%
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Massachusetts's 4th District margin of victory
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MA-04 House election: Jake Auchincloss vote percent
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MA-04 House election: Tom Stalcup vote percent
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More Massachusetts and 2026 Midterm Races

More Massachusetts races

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Control of Congress

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MA-04 House winner?

Jake Auchincloss

Odds
98% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Auchincloss
Nov 3 ·D +32.1margin forecast
Stalcup
$10,138 vol
Race Intel

MA-04 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJake Auchincloss (D)Running for re-election

MA-04 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Jake AuchinclossD
    $3.6M
    0.9%
    $3.6M raised·0.9% small donors
  • Tom StalcupR
    $26.2K
    5.1%
    $26.2K raised·5.1% small donors

Auchincloss vs. Stalcup Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsAuchincloss 97%Stalcup 3% · $2,619 traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past MA-04 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024D +19.6%2020D +28.5%