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KS-04 House Winner? 2026 Race Odds: Estes vs. Tyndell | Kalshi

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House

KS-04 House winner?

Resolves by winning party

100

Tyndell

Nov 3 ·R +14.8margin forecast

Estes

$18,910 vol

Chance

Ron Estes

Republican party

97.5%

▲ 2.3

Ron Estes

Republican party

97.5%

▲ 2.3

Katy Tyndell

Democratic party

2.5%

▼ 2.3

Katy Tyndell

Democratic party

2.5%

▼ 2.3

Race Intel

KS-04 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election

IncumbentRon Estes (R)Running for re-election

KS-04 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors

Katy TyndellD
$546K
16%
$546K raised·16% small donors
Ron EstesR
$2.2M
0.5%
$2.2M raised·0.5% small donors

Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past KS-04 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +23.3%2020R +21.7%

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Kansas's 4th District margin of victory

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KS-04 House election: Ron Estes vote percent

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Which party will win the Senate?

KS-04 House winner?

Katy Tyndell

Dollars$

Odds

4% chance

Max payout

Nov 3, 2027

$0

Which party will win the House?

Congress balance of power

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