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MA-04 House Winner? 2026 Race Odds: Auchincloss vs. Stalcup | Kalshi

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House

MA-04 House winner?

Resolves by winning party

100

Auchincloss

Nov 3 ·D +32.2margin forecast

Stalcup

$10,216 vol

Chance

Jake Auchincloss

Democratic party

97.5%

▲ 0.4

Jake Auchincloss

Democratic party

97.5%

▲ 0.4

Tom Stalcup

Republican party

2.5%

▼ 0.4

Tom Stalcup

Republican party

2.5%

▼ 0.4

Race Intel

MA-04 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election

IncumbentJake Auchincloss (D)Running for re-election

MA-04 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors

Jake AuchinclossD
$3.6M
0.9%
$3.6M raised·0.9% small donors
Tom StalcupR
$26.2K
5.1%
$26.2K raised·5.1% small donors

Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past MA-04 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024D +19.6%2020D +28.5%

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MA-04 House election: Tom Stalcup vote percent

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Texas Senate winner?

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Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?

MA-04 House winner?

Jake Auchincloss

Dollars$

Odds

99% chance

Max payout

Nov 3, 2027

$0

Which party will win the House?

Congress balance of power

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