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Texas Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026
Elections
Texas Senate winner?
Resolves by winning party
Elections
Texas Senate winner?
Resolves by winning party
Begins in
95 days
·
Nov 3, 8:00am EST
Chance
Ken Paxton
Republican party
53%
Yes
54¢
No
47¢
Ken Paxton
Republican party
53%
Yes
54¢
No
47¢
James Talarico
Democratic party
47%
Yes
47¢
No
54¢
James Talarico
Democratic party
47%
Yes
47¢
No
54¢
Race Intel
· Texas
Candidate
Polls
Raised
Small Donors
James Talarico
D
45.9%
45.9%
$68.6M
54%
$68.6M raised
·
54% small donors
Ken Paxton
R
44.7%
44.7%
$9.2M
19%
$9.2M raised
·
19% small donors
Polls · FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200
Past presidential elections
2024
R +13.7%
2020
R +5.6%
Buy
Sell
Dollars
Ken Paxton
YES --
NO --
Dollars
$
Odds
0% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Sign up to trade
$6,922,158 vol
1D
1W
1M
ALL