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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 53% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 59 days to Election
50DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats48
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado97%DDelaware96%DGeorgia92%DIllinois98%DMassachusetts98%DMinnesota91%DNorth Carolina91%DNew Jersey98%DNew Mexico97%DOregon98%DRhode Island97%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire82%

Lean Democratic

Total 3
DAlaska63%DMaine68%DMichigan63%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 1Rep 1
DOhio54%RTexas52%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RIowa65%RNebraska71%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RKansas84%RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama98%RArkansas93%RFlorida91%RIdaho96%RKentucky94%RLouisiana94%RMississippi93%RMontana90%ROklahoma96%RSouth Dakota96%RTennessee97%RWest Virginia98%RWyoming99%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$2,409,900 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

50
49
$759,738 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$648,726 vol2 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$551,779 vol6 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$412,867 vol17 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Paxton defeats Talarico
Talarico defeats Paxton
$309,509 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$228,282 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$83,052 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$76,784 vol6 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 3
$61,677 vol4 markets

More markets

Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
49%
51%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
68%
32%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
63%
37%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
53%
47%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
36%
64%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
91%
9%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
93%
7%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
13%
87%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
64%
36%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
30%
70%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
17%
83%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
8%
92%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
9%
91%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
91%
9%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
82%
18%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
5%
95%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
6%
94%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
4%
96%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
6%
94%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
6%
94%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35
131 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$93,368,622 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.50x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.73x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$531,442 vol
Yes
1.31x
No
3.66x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$42,146 vol
David Morales
1.42x
Brett Smiley
2.73x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$856,867 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.42x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$19,326 vol
Yes
3.40x
No
1.34x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$5,963 vol
Yes
2.24x
No
1.60x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?

$25,716 vol
Amendment 2
1.62x
Amendment 4
1.22x
US Elections

Will Iowa vote to require a two-thirds vote to raise the income tax?

$17,889 vol
Yes
1.44x
No
2.14x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$388,045 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.65x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$6,760 vol
Proposition 42
2.01x
Proposition 37
1.60x
Attorney General

Texas Attorney General winner?

$10,756 vol
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
1.16x
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
4.73x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

$2,708 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
2.40x
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
2.89x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State House winner?

$4,686 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.13x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
5.25x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$17,519 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.10x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
8.56x
Attorney General

Florida Attorney General winner?

$1,202 vol
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
1.14x
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
4.73x
Attorney General

Ohio Attorney General winner?

$2,166 vol
Keith Faber
Keith Faber
Keith Faber
1.10x
John Kulewicz
John Kulewicz
John Kulewicz
5.90x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$11,385 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.31x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
3.66x
Attorney General

Nevada Attorney General winner?

$2,817 vol
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
1.18x
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
4.31x
Attorney General

Georgia Attorney General winner?

$2,242 vol
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
1.73x
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
1.93x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$3,802 vol
Karen Bass, ≥2%
1.93x
Karen Bass, ≥4%
2.34x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$15,924 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.22x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.80x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$20,125 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.22x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
5.56x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$46,853 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.44x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.52x
Secretary of State

Ohio Secretary of State winner?

$5,401 vol
Robert Sprague
Robert Sprague
Robert Sprague
1.44x
Allison Russo
Allison Russo
Allison Russo
2.46x