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Federal Budget Prediction Markets & Policy Forecasts | Kalshi

Policy watchers and macro analysts can explore prediction markets on federal spending caps, deficit trajectories, and key appropriations bills. Compare probabilities across legislative sessions and fiscal signals to forecast Washington's budgetary priorities and the nation's long-term economic landscape.

Politics

Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?

Yes

No

$60,576,426 vol1 market

Who will vote for the next government funding bill in the House?

Henry Cuellar

Yes

Don Davis

Yes

$84,744 vol20 markets

Will a DOGE dividend be issued in 2025?

Yes

No

$19,764 vol1 market

How long will the government shutdown last?

More than 40 days

Yes

More than 42 days

Yes

$82,576,537 vol60 markets

Will the U.S. government reopen in 2025?

Yes

No

$4,205,749 vol1 market

Will November SNAP benefits be delayed or reduced?

Yes

No

$263,166 vol1 market

Will the next government funding bill be a 'clean CR'?

Yes

No

$301,329 vol1 market

When will the House vote on a government funding bill?

Before Nov 13, 2025

Yes

Before Nov 14, 2025

Yes

$552,825 vol20 markets

Who will vote for the next government funding bill in the House?

Victoria Spartz

Victoria Spartz

Victoria Spartz

Yes

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Yes

$128,529 vol20 markets

Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law this year?

Yes

No

$3,377 vol1 market

Which government funding bills will become law in 2025?

January CR

Yes

CR + 3-Bill Minibus

Yes

$7,298 vol5 markets

Who will vote for the next government funding bill in the Senate?

Jeanne Shaheen

Jeanne Shaheen

Jeanne Shaheen

Yes

Lisa Murkowski

Lisa Murkowski

Lisa Murkowski

Yes

$229,325 vol19 markets

Who will vote for the next budget rescission bill in the senate?

Rand Paul

No

Ron Johnson

No

$8,189 vol20 markets

What will DOGE claim to have saved in 2025?

At least $200 billion

Yes

At least $100 billion

Yes

$42,929 vol3 markets

Economics

Peak US National Debt in 2025?

At least $38 trillion

Yes

At least $37 trillion

Yes

$354,567 vol9 markets

Will total US debt be above $38T at the end of 2025?

Yes

No

$351,523 vol1 market

US defaults in 2025?

Yes

No

$88,606 vol1 market

Mentions

What will Steve Scalise say during Face the Nation?

Biden

Yes

Trump

Yes

$195,712 vol12 markets

What will the witnesses say during the hearing on US Fiscal Responsibility & Economic Growth?

Unsustainable

Yes

Bipartisan

Yes

$53,732 vol18 markets

Federal Budget Prediction Markets