UFC Picks
The market’s picks for UFC Fight Night: Ko vs Turman (Nov 7), ranked from the clearest favourite to the closest call.
Live market pricesUpdated today at 1:17 PM ET
Where these numbers come from: Kalshi prices: KXUFCFIGHT for each bout, KXUFCMOV for the method of victory, KXUFCMOF, KXUFCDISTANCE and KXUFCROUNDS for how it ends. Bout order follows the times the exchange expects each result, main event last. The track record scores each pick at the last trade before its card’s first scheduled bout, from Kalshi’s price history.
NOV 6Every bout with a favourite, ranked by the gap between the two fighters’ prices. Bouts priced level are left out.
UFC Fight Night: Ko vs Turman (Nov 7) picks
| Pick | Opponent | Chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seok Hyun KoMain event | Wellington Turman | 86% | 72 pts |
| Nina MilosevicBout 8 | Priscila Cachoeira | 81% | 61 pts |
| Keiichiro NakamuraBout 11 | Ollie Schmid | 75% | 52 pts |
| Lucas FernandoBout 3 | Billy Elekana | 75% | 49 pts |
| Elijah SmithBout 4 | Davey Grant | 74% | 47 pts |
| Mantas KondrataviciusBout 5 | Andre Petroski | 73% | 45 pts |
| Marcos DegliBout 13 | Mitch Raposo | 68% | 36 pts |
| Karine SilvaBout 14 | Gabriella Fernandes | 68% | 36 pts |
| Jose Henrique SouzaBout 12 | Jonny Parsons | 68% | 35 pts |
| Waldo Cortes-AcostaCo-main | Johnny Walker | 67% | 34 pts |
| Tatiana SuarezBout 6 | Virna Jandiroba | 66% | 31 pts |
| Thomas PetersenBout 10 | Gabriel Lorenco | 61% | 23 pts |
| Austin BashiBout 7 | Lucas Brennan | 55% | 10 pts |
| Murtazali MagomedovBout 9 | Jose Mauro Delano | 51% | 1 pt |
NOV 14Every bout with a favourite, ranked by the gap between the two fighters’ prices. Bouts priced level are left out.
UFC 334 picks
| Pick | Opponent | Chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal HasanBout 5 | Luis Gurule | 87% | 74 pts |
| Beatriz MesquitaBout 10 | Macy Chiasson | 69% | 36 pts |
| Ciryl GaneMain event | Josh Hokit | 68% | 34 pts |
| Donte JohnsonBout 8 | Baisangur Susurkaev | 68% | 30 pts |
| Terrance McKinneyBout 9 | Jim Miller | 65% | 28 pts |
| Kayla HarrisonCo-main | Amanda Nunes | 64% | 26 pts |
| Uros MedicBout 4 | Kevin Holland | 63% | 26 pts |
| Chris DuncanBout 6 | Drew Dober | 61% | 19 pts |
| Caio BorralhoBout 3 | Yousri Belgaroui | 60% | 19 pts |
| Nazim SadykhovBout 12 | Jefferson Nascimento | 59% | 11 pts |
| Stephen ThompsonBout 7 | Charles Radtke | 56% | 9 pts |
| Juan DiazBout 11 | Adrian Yanez | 51% | 1 pt |
TRACK RECORDAcross all 65 finished cards since UFC 315 (May 10, 2025), the fighter Kalshi priced higher when the card began won 470 of 670 bouts (70%). By how sure the market was:
How the market’s UFC picks have done
| Favourite’s price | Won | Bouts | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 60% | 99 | 160 | 62% |
| 60–69% | 137 | 213 | 64% |
| 70–79% | 122 | 171 | 71% |
| 80% and up | 112 | 126 | 89% |
CARD BY CARDThe 12 most recent cards: how many bouts the favourite won, and the winner the market rated least likely.
The record, card by card
| Card | Favourites | Biggest upset |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan (Oct 31)Oct 31, 2026 | 9 of 12 | Dakota Hope · 35% |
| UFC 333Oct 24, 2026 | 11 of 14 | Colby Thicknesse · 17% |
| UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs MalottOct 17, 2026 | 7 of 13 | Chelsea Chandler · 24% |
| UFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanOct 10, 2026 | 6 of 11 | Brendson Ribeiro · 23% |
| UFC 332Oct 3, 2026 | 13 of 14 | Roman Kopylov · 31% |
| UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr vs BarcelosSep 26, 2026 | 7 of 12 | Several at 25% |
| UFC 331Sep 19, 2026 | 7 of 12 | Sean Sharaf · 8% |
| UFC Fight Night: Silva vs DelgadoSep 12, 2026 | 9 of 13 | Alexa Grasso · 30% |
| UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseSep 5, 2026 | 9 of 14 | Pavel Andrusca · 29% |
| UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAug 29, 2026 | 8 of 13 | Yadong Song · 17% |
| UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesAug 22, 2026 | 11 of 15 | Several at 24% |
| UFC 330Aug 15, 2026 | 7 of 12 | Jeremiah Wells · 11% |
PRICED RIGHT?Across the 65 cards scored since UFC 315 (May 10, 2025), favourites on Kalshi won more often than their prices said, by 1 point: 470 wins in 670 bouts (70%), against prices that averaged 69%. The furthest off were those priced under 60%: 62% won, against an average price of 55%, over 160 bouts.
Did the UFC favourites win as often as their prices said?
Hit rate70%470 wins in 670 bouts
Their prices said69%The average price before play: about 460.2 wins expected
Against the price+1 ptFavourites won more often than their prices said, by 1 point
Biggest upset8%Sean Sharaf, in Steveson vs Sharaf at UFC 331: the lowest-priced winner in the record
UFC favourites: how often they won, against their price
← Below their pricesAbove their prices →- Under 60%Under 60%Favourites priced under 60%: 62% won, against an average price of 55%, over 160 bouts:+762%99 wins in 160 bouts (62%), priced at 55% on average
- 60–69%60–69%Favourites priced 60–69%: 64% won, against an average price of 65%, over 213 bouts:−164%137 wins in 213 bouts (64%), priced at 65% on average
- 70–79%70–79%Favourites priced 70–79%: 71% won, against an average price of 74%, over 171 bouts:−371%122 wins in 171 bouts (71%), priced at 74% on average
- 80% and up80% and upFavourites priced 80% and up: 89% won, against an average price of 85%, over 126 bouts:+489%112 wins in 126 bouts (89%), priced at 85% on average
Beat their pricesWins over the number the prices expected
Fell shortWins under the number the prices expected
- UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs Zalal−3.65 of 13 · 8.6 expected
- UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott−1.87 of 13 · 8.8 expected
- UFC 331−1.77 of 12 · 8.7 expected
- UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva−1.62 of 6 · 3.6 expected
- UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree−1.63 of 7 · 4.6 expected
METHOD
How to read this page
A pick is the fighter the market prices higher; Margin is how many percentage points separate the two prices, so the top of the list is where the market is surest.
A distance pick is “Goes the distance” when that contract trades above 50¢ and “Finish” below it.
The track record counts every bout with a winner whose two prices differed when its card began. Draws, no contests, canceled bouts and bouts priced level are left out; the price bands go by the favourite’s price then.
Priced right? sets the record against its own prices. A favourite priced at 70% should win about 7 times in 10, so each price band’s bar is the share that won minus the band’s average price, in percentage points: right of the centre line, those favourites won more often than their prices said; left of it, less often. One result moves a small band a long way, so read each bar with its count.
FAQ
Questions
What is the safest pick on UFC Fight Night: Ko vs Turman (Nov 7)?
By the market’s prices, Seok Hyun Ko over Wellington Turman, at 86%. No pick is safe: a price is a probability, not a promise.
What is the closest fight on UFC Fight Night: Ko vs Turman (Nov 7)?
Delano vs Magomedov (Nov 6): Murtazali Magomedov is the favourite at 51%, with Jose Mauro Delano at 50%.
How often does the UFC favourite win on Kalshi?
Across all 65 finished cards since UFC 315 (May 10, 2025), the fighter Kalshi priced higher when the card began won 470 of 670 bouts (70%).
Are Kalshi’s UFC favourites priced right?
Across the 65 cards scored since UFC 315 (May 10, 2025), favourites on Kalshi won more often than their prices said, by 1 point: 470 wins in 670 bouts (70%), against prices that averaged 69%. The furthest off were those priced under 60%: 62% won, against an average price of 55%, over 160 bouts.
How do I read Kalshi’s UFC odds?
Each price is what a contract paying $1 if that outcome happens costs right now, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. Prices move with every trade, and every one on this page links to its market.
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