UFC Picks
The market’s picks for UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott, ranked from the clearest favourite to the closest call, and which bouts the market expects to go the distance.
Live market pricesUpdated Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026 · 7:08 PM ET
Where these numbers come from: Kalshi prices: KXUFCFIGHT for each bout, KXUFCMOV for the method of victory, KXUFCMOF, KXUFCDISTANCE and KXUFCROUNDS for how it ends. Bout order follows the times the exchange expects each result, main event last. The track record scores each pick at the last trade before its card’s first scheduled bout, from Kalshi’s price history.
OCT 17Every bout with a favourite, ranked by the gap between the two fighters’ prices. Bouts priced level are left out.
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott picks
| Pick | Opponent | Chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick GalantiBout 11 | Julien Leblanc | 84% | 67 pts |
| Erin BlanchfieldCo-main | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 76% | 51 pts |
| Cristian PerezBout 3 | Kyle Nelson | 76% | 51 pts |
| Melissa CrodenBout 9 | Chelsea Chandler | 72% | 44 pts |
| Mandel NalloBout 6 | Nate Landwehr | 72% | 42 pts |
| Katlyn CerminaraBout 13 | Mackenzie Stiller | 71% | 42 pts |
| Jhonata DinizBout 7 | Tanner Boser | 70% | 39 pts |
| Kyle DaukausBout 4 | Marc Andre Barriault | 66% | 32 pts |
| Louis JourdainBout 5 | Timothy Angel Cuamba | 62% | 24 pts |
| Steven KoslowBout 8 | Chad Anheliger | 59% | 17 pts |
| Cody ChovancekBout 10 | Soyoung You | 55% | 9 pts |
| Mike MalottMain event | Joaquin Buckley | 54% | 8 pts |
| Joel FaglierBout 12 | Javad Mahjoub | 52% | 4 pts |
GO THE DISTANCEWhether the market expects each bout to reach the judges.
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott: distance picks
| Bout | Pick | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Croden vs Chandler | Goes the distance | 51% |
| Leblanc vs Galanti | Finish | 20% |
OCT 24Every bout with a favourite, ranked by the gap between the two fighters’ prices. Bouts priced level are left out.
UFC 333 picks
| Pick | Opponent | Chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Rakhman YakhyaevBout 6 | Nikita Krylov | 80% | 60 pts |
| Azamat MurzakanovBout 5 | Dominick Reyes | 67% | 34 pts |
| Petr YanCo-main | Merab Dvalishvili | 61% | 23 pts |
| Alexander VolkovBout 4 | Rizvan Kuniev | 56% | 12 pts |
| Grant DawsonBout 8 | Nurullo Aliev | 54% | 7 pts |
| Losene KeitaBout 9 | Aaron Pico | 53% | 7 pts |
| Loneer KavanaghBout 3 | Ramazonbek Temirov | 53% | 5 pts |
| Abusupiyan MagomedovBout 7 | Cameron Rowston | 51% | 2 pts |
| Movsar EvloevMain event | Alex Volkanovski | 51% | 1 pt |
TRACK RECORDAcross all 62 finished cards since UFC 315 (May 10, 2025), the fighter Kalshi priced higher when the card began won 443 of 631 bouts (70%). By how sure the market was:
How the market’s UFC picks have done
| Favourite’s price | Won | Bouts | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 60% | 88 | 145 | 61% |
| 60–69% | 134 | 205 | 65% |
| 70–79% | 112 | 159 | 70% |
| 80% and up | 109 | 122 | 89% |
CARD BY CARDThe 12 most recent cards: how many bouts the favourite won, and the winner the market rated least likely.
The record, card by card
| Card | Favourites | Biggest upset |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanOct 10, 2026 | 6 of 11 | Brendson Ribeiro · 23% |
| UFC 332Oct 3, 2026 | 13 of 14 | Roman Kopylov · 31% |
| UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr vs BarcelosSep 26, 2026 | 7 of 12 | Brady Hiestand · 25% |
| UFC 331Sep 19, 2026 | 7 of 12 | Sean Sharaf · 8% |
| UFC Fight Night: Silva vs DelgadoSep 12, 2026 | 9 of 13 | Alexa Grasso · 30% |
| UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseSep 5, 2026 | 9 of 14 | Pavel Andrusca · 29% |
| UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAug 29, 2026 | 8 of 13 | Yadong Song · 17% |
| UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesAug 22, 2026 | 11 of 15 | Marquel Mederos · 24% |
| UFC 330Aug 15, 2026 | 7 of 12 | Jeremiah Wells · 11% |
| UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs SalkilldAug 8, 2026 | 11 of 12 | Jose Montanha Da Silva · 36% |
| UFC Fight Night: Medic vs RodriguezAug 1, 2026 | 12 of 14 | Gilbert Urbina · 25% |
| UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs GuskovJul 25, 2026 | 11 of 12 | Muhammad Said · 37% |
METHOD
How to read this page
A pick is the fighter the market prices higher; Margin is how many percentage points separate the two prices, so the top of the list is where the market is surest.
A distance pick is “Goes the distance” when that contract trades above 50¢ and “Finish” below it.
The track record counts every bout with a winner whose two prices differed when its card began. Draws, no contests, cancelled bouts and bouts priced level are left out; the price bands go by the favourite’s price then.
FAQ
Questions
What is the safest pick on UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott?
By the market’s prices, Nick Galanti over Julien Leblanc, at 84%. No pick is safe: a price is a probability, not a promise.
What is the closest fight on UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott?
Mahjoub vs Faglier: Joel Faglier is the favourite at 52%, with Javad Mahjoub at 48%.
How often does the UFC favourite win on Kalshi?
Across all 62 finished cards since UFC 315 (May 10, 2025), the fighter Kalshi priced higher when the card began won 443 of 631 bouts (70%).
How do I read Kalshi’s UFC odds?
Each price is what a contract paying $1 if that outcome happens costs right now, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. Prices move with every trade, and every one on this page links to its market.
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