UFC 334 Odds & Predictions
UFC 334 is on Saturday, November 14, 2026 at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY. Kalshi’s price for all 16 bouts, how each fighter is priced to win, and the market’s pick in every fight. Broadcast: Paramount+, the UFC’s US home since January 2026 (CBS simulcasts select numbered cards).
Live market pricesUpdated today at 5:38 AM ET
Where these numbers come from: Kalshi prices: KXUFCFIGHT for each bout, KXUFCMOV for the method of victory, KXUFCMOF, KXUFCDISTANCE and KXUFCROUNDS for how it ends. Bout order follows the times the exchange expects each result, main event last.
NOV 1416 bouts, main event first. Each fighter’s Kalshi price to win, its move over the last day, and how much the bout has traded.
UFC 334 odds
| Bout | Fighter | Win | 24h | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main event | Ciryl Gane | 66% | +3 | 4M |
| Josh Hokit | 34% | −5 | ||
| Co-main | Kayla Harrison | 61% | −2 | 390.3K |
| Amanda Nunes | 41% | +2 | ||
| Bout 3 | Caio Borralho | 60% | −1 | 98.3K |
| Yousri Belgaroui | 42% | +1 | ||
| Bout 4 | Uros Medic | 61% | +2 | 120K |
| Kevin Holland | 41% | −1 | ||
| Bout 5 | Bilal Hasan | 89% | +1 | 105.7K |
| Luis Gurule | 13% | −1 | ||
| Bout 6 | Drew Dober | 39% | −2 | 27.2K |
| Chris Duncan | 62% | +1 | ||
| Bout 7 | Stephen Thompson | 57% | −3 | 70.3K |
| Charles Radtke | 44% | +2 | ||
| Bout 8 | Donte Johnson | 54% | 0 | 1.7K |
| Baisangur Susurkaev | 50% | 0 | ||
| Bout 9 | Donte Johnson | 63% | +2 | 77.1K |
| Cesar Almeida | 37% | −4 | ||
| Bout 10 | Jim Miller | 34% | −3 | 39.5K |
| Terrance McKinney | 67% | −1 | ||
| Bout 11 | Melquizael Costa | 78% | +1 | 8.5K |
| Jared Gordon | 23% | −2 | ||
| Bout 12 | Macy Chiasson | 30% | −1 | 19.1K |
| Beatriz Mesquita | 70% | −1 | ||
| Bout 13 | Alateng Heili | 23% | −1 | 6.4K |
| Juan Diaz | 79% | +2 | ||
| Bout 14 | Adrian Yanez | 55% | 0 | 729.9 |
| Juan Diaz | 48% | 0 | ||
| Bout 15 | Evan Elder | 48% | −1 | 39.4K |
| Samuel Sanches | 53% | −1 | ||
| Bout 16 | Nazim Sadykhov | 82% | 0 | 110.4 |
| Jefferson Nascimento | 83% | 0 |
UPSET WATCHThe underdogs’ chances on the 13 bouts still trading, added up, and the closest and most lopsided of them.
UFC 334: upsets to expect
Upsets to expect4.4The underdogs’ chances added up, over the 13 bouts with a favourite
Closest bout48% – 53%Elder vs Sanches (Nov 14)
Heaviest favourite89%Bilal Hasan, in Hasan vs Gurule (Nov 14)
Coin flips1 of 13Bouts with neither side priced above 55%
Closest boutsThe smallest gap between the two prices
- Elder vs Sanches (Nov 14)48% – 53%Samuel Sanches favouredYes 53¢
- Thompson vs Radtke (Nov 14)57% – 44%Stephen Thompson favouredYes 57¢
- Borralho vs Belgaroui (Nov 14)60% – 42%Caio Borralho favouredYes 60¢
- Harrison vs Nunes (Nov 14)61% – 41%Kayla Harrison favouredYes 61¢
- Medic vs Holland (Nov 14)61% – 41%Uros Medic favouredYes 61¢
Most lopsidedThe widest gap between the two prices
- Hasan vs Gurule (Nov 14)89% – 13%Bilal Hasan favouredYes 89¢
- Heili vs Diaz (Nov 14)23% – 79%Juan Diaz favouredYes 79¢
- Costa vs Gordon (Nov 14)78% – 23%Melquizael Costa favouredYes 78¢
- Chiasson vs Mesquita (Nov 14)30% – 70%Beatriz Mesquita favouredYes 70¢
- Miller vs McKinney (Nov 14)34% – 67%Terrance McKinney favouredYes 67¢
METHOD OF VICTORYEach fighter’s price to win by KO or TKO, by submission, or on the scorecards.
UFC 334: how each fighter wins
| Fighter | KO/TKO | Sub | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl GaneMain event · Gane vs Hokit (Nov 14) | 40% | 7% | 18% |
| Josh Hokit | 20% | 7% | 12% |
| Kayla HarrisonCo-main · Harrison vs Nunes (Nov 14) | 9% | 31% | 22% |
| Amanda Nunes | 23% | 4% | 14% |
| Caio BorralhoBout 3 · Borralho vs Belgaroui (Nov 14) | 8% | 12% | 38% |
| Yousri Belgaroui | 17% | 4% | 22% |
| Uros MedicBout 4 · Medic vs Holland (Nov 14) | 46% | 4% | 10% |
| Kevin Holland | 18% | 17% | 8% |
| Bilal HasanBout 5 · Hasan vs Gurule (Nov 14) | 74% | 5% | 11% |
| Luis Gurule | 6% | 3% | 4% |
| Drew DoberBout 6 · Dober vs Duncan (Nov 14) | 30% | 2% | 8% |
| Chris Duncan | 23% | 21% | 16% |
| Stephen ThompsonBout 7 · Thompson vs Radtke (Nov 14) | 17% | 4% | 40% |
| Charles Radtke | 15% | 9% | 17% |
| Donte JohnsonBout 9 · Johnson vs Almeida (Nov 14) | 38% | 7% | 18% |
| Cesar Almeida | 26% | 3% | 10% |
| Jim MillerBout 10 · Miller vs McKinney (Nov 14) | 10% | 22% | 3% |
| Terrance McKinney | 42% | 21% | 5% |
| Melquizael CostaBout 11 · Costa vs Gordon (Nov 14) | 39% | 16% | 23% |
| Jared Gordon | 8% | 2% | 12% |
| Macy ChiassonBout 12 · Chiasson vs Mesquita (Nov 14) | 12% | 3% | 14% |
| Beatriz Mesquita | 7% | 51% | 16% |
| Alateng HeiliBout 13 · Heili vs Diaz (Nov 14) | 7% | 2% | 14% |
| Juan Diaz | 20% | 14% | 48% |
| Evan ElderBout 15 · Elder vs Sanches (Nov 14) | 12% | 8% | 26% |
| Samuel Sanches | 34% | 4% | 17% |
FIGHT PROPSWhoever wins: the price the bout goes the distance, ends inside the first round, or ends by KO/TKO or submission.
UFC 334: how each bout ends
HOW IT ENDSEach favourite’s price to win against its bout’s price to go the distance, over the 13 bouts pricing both.
UFC 334: early night or a long one?
Finishes to expect8.5Of the 13 bouts with a distance price, how many the market expects to end inside it
Likeliest finish93%Miller vs McKinney (Nov 14): 8% to go the distance
Likeliest to go the distance64%Borralho vs Belgaroui (Nov 14)
UFC 334: the favourite’s price against the price it goes the distance
Likeliest to end earlyThe lowest prices to go the distance
- Miller vs McKinney (Nov 14)8%to go the distanceYes 8¢
- Hasan vs Gurule (Nov 14)16%to go the distanceYes 17¢
- Medic vs Holland (Nov 14)20%to go the distanceYes 21¢
- Dober vs Duncan (Nov 14)24%to go the distanceYes 25¢
- Chiasson vs Mesquita (Nov 14)27%to go the distanceYes 29¢
Likeliest to go the distanceThe highest prices to reach the judges
- Borralho vs Belgaroui (Nov 14)64%to go the distanceYes 65¢
- Heili vs Diaz (Nov 14)61%to go the distanceYes 62¢
- Thompson vs Radtke (Nov 14)57%to go the distanceYes 58¢
- Elder vs Sanches (Nov 14)44%to go the distanceYes 45¢
- Costa vs Gordon (Nov 14)38%to go the distanceYes 39¢
HOW TO WATCHAt Madison Square Garden, New York, NY. Broadcast: Paramount+, the UFC’s US home since January 2026 (CBS simulcasts select numbered cards). Each segment’s start, in US Eastern time.
UFC 334: start times and how to watch
| Segment | Starts |
|---|---|
| Prelims | Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST |
| Early Prelims | Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM EST |
| Main Card | Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM EST |
PREDICTIONS
UFC 334 predictions
METHOD
How to read this page
Prices are Kalshi’s: what a contract paying $1 if that outcome happens costs, read as a probability. A dash is a contract nobody has traded and whose book is too wide to read.
The card is ordered from the main event down, by when the exchange expects each result. Results come from each market’s grading.
Upsets to expect adds up each underdog’s chance: its price over the two prices together. A total of 2.4 means the market expects two or three favourites to lose, whichever ones they turn out to be. A coin flip is a pairing whose favourite is priced 55% or less.
How it ends sets each bout’s favourite against the price the bout goes the distance. Finishes to expect adds up each bout’s chance of ending inside the distance; the dashed lines, where drawn, are the card’s medians.
FAQ
Questions
When is UFC 334?
Saturday, November 14, 2026.
What is the main event of UFC 334?
Gane vs Hokit (Nov 14).
Who is favoured in Gane vs Hokit (Nov 14)?
Ciryl Gane is the favourite at 66%, with Josh Hokit at 34%.
What time does UFC 334 start?
The main card starts Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM EST; the prelims at Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST and the early prelims at Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM EST. Times are US Eastern.
How can I watch UFC 334?
Paramount+, the UFC’s US home since January 2026 (CBS simulcasts select numbered cards).
Where is UFC 334?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY.
How do I read Kalshi’s UFC odds?
Each price is what a contract paying $1 if that outcome happens costs right now, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. Prices move with every trade, and every one on this page links to its market.
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