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Men’s Tournament Challenge

$1 BILLION BRACKET

 

Primary Elections

United States 2026
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Primary Elections

United States 2026

2026 Primary Elections

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Men’s Tournament Challenge

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Primary Elections

United States 2026
US flag

Primary Elections

United States 2026

2026 Primary Elections

US flag
Markets over MonopoliesHow fair markets protect consumers
Responsible TradingTools and tips for trading smart
Market IntegrityLearn how Kalshi prevents insider trading

Trending

1
What will JD Vance say during his St. Patrick's Day breakfast?Luck / Lucky
3%
▲3
2
IL-09 Democratic nominee?Daniel Biss
76%
▲7
3
Illinois Democratic Senate nominee?Raja Krishnamoorthi
59%
▲16

2026 Primaries

1
IL-09 Democratic nominee?Daniel Biss
76%
▲7
2
Illinois Democratic Senate nominee?Raja Krishnamoorthi
59%
▲16
3
Illinois Republican Senate nominee?Don Tracy
94%
▼2

Top movers

1
Liga MX Clausura WinnerToluca
22%
▼72
2
Who will be featured on Yeat's next album?Drake
84%
▲82
3
San Diego pro baseball wins this season?90+ wins
18%
▼75

New

1
What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?Hospitality
55%
▲55
2
What will General Mills say during their next earnings call?Wilderness
53%
▲53
3
What will Oklo say during their next earnings call?Inflation
49%
▲49

Highest volume

1
Men's College Basketball ChampionDuke
$67,728,908 vol68 markets
20%
▼2
2
2028 Democratic nominee for President?Gavin Newsom
$61,983,278 vol39 markets
30%––
3
Pro Basketball Champion?Oklahoma City
$40,559,517 vol30 markets
39%––

What will JD Vance say during his St. Patrick's Day breakfast?

MarketPays outOdds
Luck / Lucky
31.2x
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
93.5x
$439,478 vol12 markets

News · Vice President JD Vance welcomed Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin for a St. Patrick's Day breakfast at his residence, where the two highlighted cultural ties and shared heritage between the United States and Ireland, Cleveland.com reports. The meeting featured lighthearted exchanges alongside broader remarks on long-standing political, economic, and diplomatic connections between the two countries.

Men's College Basketball Champion

MarketPays outOdds
Duke
Duke
4.73x
Michigan
Michigan
5.25x
$67,715,296 vol66 markets

News · The 68-team field for the men's national college basketball tournament was unveiled Sunday, with Duke earning the top overall seed in the East Region after winning the ACC title, NBC Sports reports. Michigan, Florida, and Arizona also secured No. 1 seeds as teams prepare for the First Four games starting March 17 in Dayton, Ohio.

Illinois Democratic Senate nominee?

LIVE
Juliana Stratton
Juliana Stratton
2.24x
Raja Krishnamoorthi
Raja Krishnamoorthi
1.65x
$536,522 vol12 markets

News · Democratic candidates in Illinois’ Senate primary are centering their campaigns on opposition to ICE, with ads and messaging focusing heavily on the issue ahead of the March 17 vote, NBC News reports. The leading contenders have taken varying positions, ranging from reforming to abolishing the agency, as the race tests what resonates most with Democratic voters.

#15 or #16 seed to win a game in the Round of 64

MarketPays outOdds
Yes
6.74x
No
1.14x
$79,455 vol

News · The 68-team field for the men’s national college basketball tournament will be announced at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, giving fans their first look at the full bracket, USA TODAY Reports. The reveal comes after most conference championship games wrapped up this weekend, allowing teams and fans to begin preparing for the opening round matchups.

Number of upsets in the Round of 64

MarketPays outOdds
7+ upsets
1.86x
8+ upsets
2.89x
$188,681 vol16 markets

News · The men's college basketball tournament's first round begins this week with 32 games across the field of 64 teams, setting the stage for the opening wave of potential upsets, CBS Sports reports. Analysts expect top contenders to advance but warn that unexpected results often emerge immediately once the bracket tips off.

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

MarketPays outOdds
Republican Party
Republican Party
1.90x
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
1.93x
$2,438,169 vol

News · Democrats may have new opportunities to compete for Senate seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Montana as the 2026 midterms approach, according to a political analysis, The Hill Reports. The races could determine control of the chamber as the elections are framed as a referendum on the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term.

Average traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Apr 1, 2026?

MarketPays outOdds
Above 20
1.97x
Above 30
2.46x
$54,324 vol7 markets

News · Commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped, with no confirmed ship transits in either direction over the past 24 hours, Bloomberg Reports. The shutdown comes as as heightened risks keep oil markets on edge.
1 of 7

Politics

Congress

How long will the government shutdown last?

At least 60 days
1.86x
At least 70 days
2.40x
$4,613,433 vol21 markets
Markets over MonopoliesHow fair markets protect consumers
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Congress

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?

Before Jan 21, 2029
1.59x
Before 2027
6.67x
$225,208 vol3 markets
Trump

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Before 2027
5.25x
Before August
9.41x
$1,384,919 vol9 markets
International

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

Between 10% and 19.99%
1.37x
Between 20% and 29.99%
5.26x
$42,812 vol7 markets

Elections

US Elections

2028 Democratic nominee for President?

Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom
3.33x
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
11.1x
$61,983,102 vol39 markets
US Elections

2028 Republican nominee for President?

J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
2.63x
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
3.57x
$22,193,126 vol31 markets
US Elections

Which party will win the U.S. House?

Democratic Party
Democratic Party
1.18x
Republican Party
Republican Party
6.25x
$6,840,951 vol2 markets
US Elections

Texas Senate winner?

Republican party
Republican party
1.75x
James Talarico
James Talarico
2.27x
$1,739,482 vol2 markets

Companies

AI

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI
1.72x
xAI
2.27x
$856,250 vol14 markets
Elon Musk

Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

350000 or more
2.17x
340000 or more
1.75x
$495,549 vol12 markets
BTC

When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?

Before January 2027
2.17x
Before October 2026
2.63x
$3,882,049 vol8 markets
IPOs

Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?

Anthropic
Anthropic
2.08x
OpenAI
OpenAI
2.08x
$994,291 vol28 markets

Economics

Employment

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Soft landing
1.89x
Stagflation
4.17x
$9,123 vol4 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts
3.70x
Exactly 1 cut
3.70x
$2,115,883 vol21 markets
Employment

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

Yes
1.15x
No
6.74x
$2,767,224 vol1 market
Employment

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Above 9%
1.96x
Above 8%
1.61x
$9,165 vol10 markets