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  1. Senate

Texas Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party
Combo
Chance
James Talarico
Democratic party
64%
▲ 2

James Talarico

Democratic party
64%
▲ 2
Ken Paxton
Republican party
36%
▼ 2

Ken Paxton

Republican party
36%
▼ 2
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Massachusetts Governor race: Healey vs. MinogueWisconsin Governor race: Crowley vs. TiffanyPennsylvania Governor race: Shapiro vs. GarrityMontana Senate race: Alme vs. BodnarArizona Governor race: Hobbs vs. BiggsMississippi Senate race: Hyde-Smith vs. ColomVermont Governor race: Scott vs. JanooMinnesota Governor race: Klobuchar vs. DemuthMichigan Governor race: Benson vs. JamesIdaho Senate race: Risch vs. Achilles
Combo
Texas Senate winner?

James Talarico

Odds
66% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Talarico
Nov 3 ·D +1.8margin forecast
Paxton
$34,133,162 vol
Race Intel

Texas Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJohn Cornyn (R)Lost primary

Texas Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • James TalaricoD48.5%
    48.5%
    $68.6M
    54%
    $68.6M raised·54% small donors
  • Ken PaxtonR46.1%
    46.1%
    $19.5M
    19%
    $19.5M raised·19% small donors

Talarico vs. Paxton Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageTalarico +2.448.5% vs. 46.1%
Kalshi oddsTalarico 64%Paxton 36% · $32.4M traded
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Texas Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +13.7%2020R +5.6%