Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive125AccountSocial
MARKETSINVESTLIVE125
Product
Kalshi ProInvestMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

CA-23 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Jay Obernolte
Republican party
96%
▲ 0.7

Jay Obernolte

Republican party
96%
▲ 0.7
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Democratic party
4%
▼ 0.7

Tessa Lynn Hodge

Democratic party
4%
▼ 0.7
People are also trading
Series Image
California's 23rd District margin of victory
Series Image
California 23 House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
CA-23 House election: Jay Obernolte vote percent
Series Image
CA-23 House election: Tessa Lynn Hodge vote percent
Series Image
Texas Senate winner?
Series Image
Who will control the House?
Series Image
Michigan Senate winner?
Series Image
Nebraska Senate winner?
Series Image
Texas Governor winner?
Series Image
Kansas Senate winner?

More California and 2026 Midterm Races

More California races

California Governor race: Becerra vs. HiltonCA-11 House raceCA-22 House raceCA-45 House race

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsTexas Governor race: Abbott vs. HinojosaOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollySouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsKansas Senate race: Hamilton vs. MarshallOhio Governor race: Acton vs. Ramaswamy

More races

South Dakota Senate race: Rounds vs. BengsMichigan Governor race: Benson vs. JamesOregon Governor race: Kotek vs. DrazanTennessee Governor race: Blackburn vs. GreenTennessee Senate race: Hagerty vs. BradshawOklahoma Governor race: Mazzei vs. MunsonArkansas Senate race: Cotton vs. ShoffnerIllinois Governor race: Pritzker vs. BaileyColorado Governor race: Weiser vs. MarxNew Hampshire Governor race: Ayotte vs. Warmington
CA-23 House winner?

Jay Obernolte

Odds
97% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Hodge
Nov 3 ·R +12.2margin forecast
Obernolte
$5,265 vol
Race Intel

CA-23 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJay Obernolte (R)Running for re-election

CA-23 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Jay ObernolteR
    $1.8M
    0.1%
    $1.8M raised·0.1% small donors
  • Tessa Lynn HodgeD
    $122.5K
    38%
    $122.5K raised·38% small donors
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past CA-23 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +19.4%2020R +12.1%