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  1. Senate

Minnesota Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party
Combo
Chance
Peggy Flanagan
Democratic (DFL) party
91.4%
▼ 0.8

Peggy Flanagan

Democratic (DFL) party
91.4%
▼ 0.8
Michele Tafoya
Republican party
8.6%
▲ 0.8

Michele Tafoya

Republican party
8.6%
▲ 0.8

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Minnesota Senate margin of victory
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Minnesota Senate: margin of victory
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Minnesota Senate margin of victory
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Minnesota Senate election: Michele Tafoya vote percent
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Minnesota Senate election: Peggy Flanagan vote percent
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Who will control the Senate?
General election · Nov 3, 2026What’s on your ballot?
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Combo
Minnesota Senate winner?

Peggy Flanagan

Odds
92% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Flanagan
Nov 3 ·D +7.5margin forecast
Tafoya
$8,411,237 vol
Race Intel

Minnesota Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentTina Smith (D)Not seeking re-election

Minnesota Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • Peggy FlanaganD49.0%
    49.0%
    $10.3M
    38%
    $10.3M raised·38% small donors
  • Michele TafoyaR43.0%
    43.0%
    $9.7M
    40%
    $9.7M raised·40% small donors
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Minnesota Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024D +4.2%2020D +7.1%

More Minnesota and 2026 Midterm Races

More Minnesota races

Minnesota Governor race: Klobuchar vs. DemuthMN-05 House raceMN-01 House race

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Midterms forecast

2026 midterm predictions2026 Senate forecast

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