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  1. Senate

Texas Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party
Combo
Chance
James Talarico
Democratic party
74%
▲ 1

James Talarico

Democratic party
74%
▲ 1
Ken Paxton
Republican party
26%
▼ 1

Ken Paxton

Republican party
26%
▼ 1

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Texas Senate: margin of victory
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?
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Will James Talarico outperform the polls?
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Bexar County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Texas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percent
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Harris County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Travis County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
General election · Nov 3, 2026What’s on your ballot?
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Combo
Texas Senate winner?

James Talarico

Odds
75% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Talarico
Nov 3 ·D +2.9margin forecast
Paxton
$86,648,129 vol
Race Intel

Texas Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJohn Cornyn (R)Lost primary

Texas Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • James TalaricoD49.3%
    49.3%
    $68.6M
    54%
    $68.6M raised·54% small donors
  • Ken PaxtonR45.6%
    45.6%
    $19.5M
    19%
    $19.5M raised·19% small donors
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Texas Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +13.7%2020R +5.6%

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