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2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
2026
Midterm Election Predictions
Overview
Senate
House
Governor
States
My Ballot
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Referendums
Senate
House
Governor
The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power.
Learn more
More markets
Senate control forecast
DEM
REP
100%
Safe Dem
House control forecast
DEM
REP
100%
Safe Dem
Featured
Mississippi Senate winner?
Live
Colom
99%
Hyde-Smith
1%
Projected margin
D +0.8
Alaska Senate winner?
Live
Democratic
98%
Republican
2%
NC-03 House winner?
Live
Smith
78%
Murphy
22%
Kansas Governor winner?
Live
Holscher
100%
Masterson
0%
Projected margin
D +1.5
Show all 4 markets
60 events
Market
Pays out
Odds
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
·
US Elections
$90,825 vol
No, ≥7%
4.13
x
21
%
No, ≥4%
1.13
x
87
%
Blue wave this year?
LIVE
Senate
$13,146,370 vol
Yes
1.01
x
99
%
No
93.5
x
1
%
Oregon State House winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$38,318 vol
Democratic party
1.01
x
94
%
Republican party
46.8
x
1
%
Blue tsunami this year?
LIVE
Senate
$3,375,044 vol
Yes
1.02
x
98
%
No
46.8
x
2
%
North Carolina State Senate winner?
·
US Elections
$148,121 vol
Republican party
1.04
x
96
%
Democratic party
31.2
x
1
%
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
·
US Elections
$4,346,446 vol
Yes
93.5
x
1
%
No
1.01
x
99
%
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)
·
US Elections
$117,293 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
5.90
x
6
%
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
1.06
x
96
%
Alaska State House winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$11,943 vol
Republican party
2.59
x
37
%
Democratic party
3.18
x
30
%
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
LIVE
Senate
$1,412,103 vol
Yes
1.01
x
98
%
No
46.8
x
2
%
Washington State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$25,853 vol
Democratic party
1.02
x
97
%
Republican party
31.2
x
3
%
Which ballot measures will pass in San Francisco?
LIVE
Referendums
$4,169 vol
Proposition B
1.01
x
45
%
Proposition G
46.8
x
1
%
Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities this year?
LIVE
US Elections
$36,919 vol
Utah Senate
1.04
x
96
%
Arizona Senate
46.8
x
1
%
New Hampshire State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$49,802 vol
Democratic party
1.03
x
96
%
Republican party
46.8
x
1
%
Maine State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$34,999 vol
Democratic party
1.01
x
99
%
Republican party
46.8
x
2
%
Ohio Attorney General winner?
LIVE
Attorney General
$58,746 vol
John Kulewicz
1.01
x
98
%
Keith Faber
93.5
x
1
%
New York City mayoral election winner?
·
US Elections
$20,544 vol
Zohran Mamdani
1.18
x
82
%
Jessica Tisch
10.4
x
5
%
Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?
·
Referendums
$27,842 vol
Yes
6.74
x
11
%
No
1.06
x
89
%
Oregon State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$12,881 vol
Democratic party
1.01
x
98
%
Republican party
46.8
x
1
%
Midterms: Blue trickle?
LIVE
Senate
$214,894 vol
Yes
--
99
%
No
93.5
x
1
%
Which ballot measures will pass in California?
LIVE
Referendums
$86,487 vol
Proposition 41
18.8
x
2
%
Proposition 4
46.8
x
2
%
Which ballot measures will pass in Washington?
·
Referendums
$16,768 vol
Yes
4.51
x
14
%
No
1.16
x
86
%
How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress this year?
LIVE
Mixed Combos
$27,184 vol
At least 5
1.06
x
36
%
At least 3
1.04
x
49
%
Pennsylvania State Senate winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$50,029 vol
Democratic party
1.02
x
90
%
Republican party
18.8
x
3
%
Iowa State House winner?
LIVE
US Elections
$129,130 vol
Republican party
1.02
x
97
%
Democratic party
93.5
x
1
%
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