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Alaska Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Peltola vs. Sullivan | Kalshi

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Senate

Alaska Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party

2

Democrat

Nov 4

Republican

$3,553,238 vol

Chance

Democratic party

74%

Democratic party

74%

Republican party

Current incumbent: Dan Sullivan

26%

Republican party

Current incumbent: Dan Sullivan

26%

Race Intel

Alaska Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 4, 2026General election

IncumbentDan Sullivan (R)Running for re-election

Alaska Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors

Mary PeltolaD49.6%
49.6%
$15.6M
37%
$15.6M raised·37% small donors
Dan SullivanR46.8%
46.8%
$8.5M
5.5%
$8.5M raised·5.5% small donors

Peltola vs. Sullivan Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averagePeltola +2.849.6% vs. 46.8%

Kalshi oddsPeltola 74%Sullivan 26% · $2.8M traded

Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Alaska Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +13.1%2020R +10.1%

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Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)

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Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

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Alaska Senate election: Mary Peltola vote percent (1st Round)

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Which party will win the Senate?

Alaska Senate winner?

Democratic party

Dollars$

Odds

76% chance

Max payout

Nov 3, 2027

$0

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