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Iowa Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Hinson vs. Turek | Kalshi

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Senate

Iowa Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party

2

Turek

Nov 3 ·R +1.1margin forecast

Hinson

$5,774,460 vol

Chance

Ashley Hinson

Republican party

56%

▼ 1

Ashley Hinson

Republican party

56%

▼ 1

Josh Turek

Democratic party

44%

▲ 1

Josh Turek

Democratic party

44%

▲ 1

Race Intel

Iowa Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election

IncumbentJoni Ernst (R)Not seeking re-election

Iowa Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors

Josh TurekD46.6%
46.6%
$6.3M
43%
$6.3M raised·43% small donors
Ashley HinsonR46.1%
46.1%
$10.2M
10%
$10.2M raised·10% small donors

Hinson vs. Turek Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageTurek +0.546.6% vs. 46.1%

Kalshi oddsHinson 56%Turek 44% · $5.6M traded

Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Iowa Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +13.2%2020R +8.2%

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Control of Congress

Iowa Senate winner?

Ashley Hinson

Dollars$

Odds

59% chance

Max payout

Nov 3, 2027

$0

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