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  1. Senate

Texas Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party

Combo

Chance

James Talarico
Democratic party

61%

▼ 2
James Talarico
Democratic party

61%

▼ 2

Ken Paxton
Republican party

39%

▲ 2
Ken Paxton
Republican party

39%

▲ 2

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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Starr County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?
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Webb County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Hidalgo County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Texas Senate election: James Talarico vote percent
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Bexar County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Texas Senate election: Ted Brown vote percent
Combo
Texas Senate winner?

James Talarico

Odds
64% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027

$0

Talarico
Nov 3 ·D +1.6margin forecast
Paxton
$30,451,120 vol
Race Intel
CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • James TalaricoD48.4%
    48.4%
    $68.6M
    54%
    $68.6M raised·54% small donors
  • Ken PaxtonR45.5%
    45.5%
    $9.2M
    19%
    $9.2M raised·19% small donors
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.
Past presidential elections
2024R +13.7%2020R +5.6%