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  1. Senate

Texas Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party
Combo
Chance
James Talarico
Democratic party
69%
▲ 3

James Talarico

Democratic party
69%
▲ 3
Ken Paxton
Republican party
31%
▼ 3

Ken Paxton

Republican party
31%
▼ 3
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate: margin of victory
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Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?
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Will James Talarico outperform the polls?
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Texas Senate election: James Talarico vote percent
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Dallas County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Tarrant County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Travis County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent

More Texas and 2026 Midterm Races

More Texas races

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Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Maine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyOhio Governor race: Acton vs. RamaswamyNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonMinnesota Senate race: Flanagan vs. Tafoya

More races

Massachusetts Senate race: Markey vs. DeatonNew Mexico Senate race: Luján vs. MarkerSouth Carolina Governor race: Wilson vs. JohnsonNebraska Governor race: Pillen vs. WalzVirginia Senate race: Warner vs. MizusawaColorado Senate race: Hickenlooper vs. BaisleyOklahoma Senate race: Hern vs. ThomasArkansas Governor race: Sanders vs. LoveRhode Island Senate race: Reed vs. McKayWest Virginia Senate race: Capito vs. Anderson
Combo
Texas Senate winner?

James Talarico

Odds
70% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Talarico
Nov 3
Paxton
$52,461,906 vol
Race Intel

Texas Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJohn Cornyn (R)Lost primary

Texas Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • James TalaricoD48.5%
    48.5%
    $68.6M
    54%
    $68.6M raised·54% small donors
  • Ken PaxtonR45.7%
    45.7%
    $19.5M
    19%
    $19.5M raised·19% small donors
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Texas Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +13.7%2020R +5.6%