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  1. Senate

Texas Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party
Combo
Chance
James Talarico
Democratic party
66%
▼ 2

James Talarico

Democratic party
66%
▼ 2
Ken Paxton
Republican party
34%
▲ 2

Ken Paxton

Republican party
34%
▲ 2
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate election: James Talarico vote percent
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Texas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percent
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Dallas County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Tarrant County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent

More Texas and 2026 Midterm Races

More Texas races

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Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Maine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonOhio Governor race: Acton vs. RamaswamyFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyNorth Carolina Senate race: Cooper vs. Whatley

More races

Maryland Governor race: Moore vs. CoxConnecticut Governor race: Lamont vs. FazioNebraska Governor race: Pillen vs. WalzOklahoma Senate race: Hern vs. ThomasSouth Carolina Governor race: Wilson vs. JohnsonRhode Island Senate race: Reed vs. McKayColorado Senate race: Hickenlooper vs. BaisleyVirginia Senate race: Warner vs. MizusawaWest Virginia Senate race: Capito vs. AndersonDelaware Senate race: Coons vs. Katz
Combo
Texas Senate winner?

James Talarico

Odds
68% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Talarico
Nov 3 ·D +1.7margin forecast
Paxton
$38,985,635 vol
Race Intel

Texas Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJohn Cornyn (R)Lost primary

Texas Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • James TalaricoD48.5%
    48.5%
    $68.6M
    54%
    $68.6M raised·54% small donors
  • Ken PaxtonR46.0%
    46.0%
    $19.5M
    19%
    $19.5M raised·19% small donors
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Texas Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +13.7%2020R +5.6%