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  1. Senate

Minnesota Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party
Combo
Chance
Peggy Flanagan
Democratic (DFL) party
88%
▲ 1

Peggy Flanagan

Democratic (DFL) party
88%
▲ 1
Michele Tafoya
Republican party
12%
▼ 1

Michele Tafoya

Republican party
12%
▼ 1
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Combo
Minnesota Senate winner?

Peggy Flanagan

Odds
89% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Flanagan
Nov 3 ·D +6.4margin forecast
Tafoya
$3,017,339 vol
Race Intel

Minnesota Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentTina Smith (D)Not seeking re-election

Minnesota Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • Peggy FlanaganD46.0%
    46.0%
    $10.3M
    38%
    $10.3M raised·38% small donors
  • Michele TafoyaR43.1%
    43.1%
    $9.7M
    40%
    $9.7M raised·40% small donors

Flanagan vs. Tafoya Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageFlanagan +2.946.0% vs. 43.1%
Kalshi oddsFlanagan 88%Tafoya 12% · $2.8M traded
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Minnesota Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024D +4.2%2020D +7.1%