Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive147AccountSocial
MARKETSPERPSLIVE147
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

NY-12 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Micah Lasher
Democratic party
98.7%
▼ 0.4

Micah Lasher

Democratic party
98.7%
▼ 0.4
Caroline Shinkle
Republican party
1.3%
▲ 0.4

Caroline Shinkle

Republican party
1.3%
▲ 0.4
People are also trading
Series Image
New York Governor winner?
Series Image
New York's 12th District margin of victory
Series Image
New York 12 House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
New York Attorney General winner?
Series Image
NY-04 House winner?
Series Image
NY-17 House winner?
Series Image
NY-11 House winner?
Series Image
NY-01 House winner?
Series Image
NY-03 House winner?
Series Image
NY-21 House winner?

More New York and 2026 Midterm Races

More New York races

New York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanNY-17 House raceNY-01 House raceNY-03 House raceNY-21 House raceNY-04 House race

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonTexas Governor race: Abbott vs. HinojosaOhio Governor race: Acton vs. RamaswamyFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. Jolly

More races

Nevada Governor race: Ford vs. LombardoMassachusetts Governor race: Healey vs. MinogueWisconsin Governor race: Crowley vs. TiffanyMontana Senate race: Alme vs. BodnarArizona Governor race: Hobbs vs. BiggsPennsylvania Governor race: Shapiro vs. GarrityIdaho Senate race: Risch vs. AchillesMississippi Senate race: Hyde-Smith vs. ColomVermont Governor race: Scott vs. JanooMinnesota Governor race: Klobuchar vs. Demuth
NY-12 House winner?

Micah Lasher

Odds
99% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Lasher
Nov 3 ·D +62.9margin forecast
Shinkle
$36,000 vol
Race Intel

NY-12 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJerrold Nadler (D)Not seeking re-election

NY-12 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Caroline ShinkleR
    $155.1K
    15%
    $155.1K raised·15% small donors
  • Micah LasherD
    $3.3M
    2.7%
    $3.3M raised·2.7% small donors
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past NY-12 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024D +63.6%2020D +71.4%