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  1. US Elections
  2. /
  3. 2026 midterm predictions

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

Settles on media consensus; if no consensus, President pro tempore's party on 2/1/27
2
Combo
Chance
Democratic Party
63%
▲ 1

Democratic Party

63%
▲ 1
Republican Party
37%
▼ 1

Republican Party

37%
▼ 1
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Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
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How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
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Closest Senate race this year?
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How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?
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How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
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How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?
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Which party will win the U.S. House?
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Texas Senate winner?
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Iowa Senate winner?

Who Will Control the Senate in 2026?

35 Senate seats are on the ballot on November 3, 2026. Kalshi traders give Democrats a 63% chance of winning control.

The races most likely to decide control are Texas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. Each has its own market below.

Control of Congress

Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonNebraska Senate race: Ricketts vs. OsbornFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyNorth Carolina Senate race: Cooper vs. WhatleyNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. Blakeman

More races

West Virginia Senate race: Capito vs. AndersonDelaware Senate raceWyoming Senate race: Hageman vs. ByrdIllinois Senate race: Stratton vs. TracyAlabama Senate race: Moore vs. WessOregon Senate race: Merkley vs. SmithHawaii Governor race: Green vs. CorderySouth Dakota Governor race: Rhoden vs. AhlersWyoming Governor race: Barlow vs. CasnerIdaho Governor race: Little vs. Pickens
Combo
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Democratic Party

Democratic Party

Odds
65% chance
Max payout
Feb 1, 2027
$0
Democrat
Nov 3
Republican
$65,222,599 vol