MARKETSPERPSLIVE212
Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive212AccountSocial
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center

© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

WA-05 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100


Chance

Michael Baumgartner
Republican party

86%

Michael Baumgartner
Republican party

86%


Carmela Conroy
Democratic party

14%

Carmela Conroy
Democratic party

14%


People are also trading

Series Image
WA-03 House winner?
Series Image
Washington's 5th District margin of victory
Series Image
Washington 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
Washington State Senate winner?
Series Image
WA-02 House winner?
Series Image
WA-04 House winner?
Series Image
WA-09 House winner?
Series Image
Washington State House winner?
Series Image
WA-05 House election: Carmela Conroy vote percent
Series Image
WA-05 House election: Michael Baumgartner vote percent
WA-05 House winner?

Michael Baumgartner

Odds
88% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027

$0

Conroy
Nov 3 ·R +6.7margin forecast
Baumgartner
$89,411 vol
Race Intel
CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Carmela ConroyD
    $387.5K
    22%
    $387.5K raised·22% small donors
  • Michael BaumgartnerR
    $1.7M
    11%
    $1.7M raised·11% small donors
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.
Past presidential elections
2024R +10.7%2020R +10.0%