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2026 Midterms
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Referendums

2026 Midterm Election Predictions

Election day

OverviewSenateHouseGovernorStatesMy Ballot
The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power. Learn more
More markets

Senate control forecast

DEM
REP
73%Leaning Dem

House control forecast

DEM
REP
93%Safe Dem

Texas Senate winner?

Live
Talarico71%
Paxton29%
Projected marginD +2.8

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

Nov 3
Karen Bass57%
Nithya Raman43%
$109,129,166 vol

Ohio Governor winner?

Live
Acton81%
Ramaswamy19%
Projected marginD +4.9

Florida Governor winner?

Live
Jolly34%
Donalds66%
Projected marginR +3.3

Maine Senate winner?

Live
Jackson68%
Collins32%
Projected marginD +2.2

Michigan Senate winner?

Live
El-Sayed77%
Rogers23%
Projected marginD +4.2

Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Nov 3
Democrats sweep77%
D-House, R-Senate23%
$111,864,012 vol

Who will control the Senate?

Nov 3
Democrat72%
Republican28%
$37,355,145 vol

Kansas Senate winner?

Live
Hamilton61%
Marshall39%
Projected marginD +1.6

Alaska Senate winner?

Live
Democratic70%
Republican30%

Texas Governor winner?

Live
Hinojosa35%
Abbott65%
Projected marginR +2.9

Who will control the House?

Nov 3
Democrat93%
Republican7%
$118,130,076 vol

Combos

$10 pays $19Combo · Blue WaveDemocratic Party (Who will control the Senate?)5 more$212,089 vol$10 pays $36Combo · Blue TsunamiJames Talarico (Texas Senate winner?)4 more$23,832 vol$10 pays $67Combo · Red WaveRepublican Party (Who will control the Senate?)5 more$116,263 vol$10 pays $490Combo · Red TsunamiRepublican Party (Who will control the House?)4 more$372,536 vol
160 events
MarketPays outOdds

Blue wave this year?

LIVESenate
$5,407,572 vol
Yes
1.16x
No
5.90x

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

LIVEMayor
$109,123,921 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.67x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.24x

New York Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$2,140,533 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.06x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
15.6x

Blue tsunami this year?

LIVESenate
$1,676,297 vol
Yes
1.50x
No
2.59x

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

LIVEUS Elections
$2,159,301 vol
Yes
4.13x
No
1.26x

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

LIVESenate
$682,759 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.44x

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

LIVEUS Elections
$273,768 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.76x
Bo French
Bo French
2.05x

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$273,692 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.16x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
5.90x

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

LIVEReferendums
$117,731 vol
Yes
3.18x
No
1.36x

Midterms: Blue trickle?

LIVESenate
$119,863 vol
Yes
1.06x
No
13.4x

North Carolina State House winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$119,630 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.73x
Republican party
Republican party
2.19x

Florida Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$117,950 vol
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
1.33x
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
3.29x

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

LIVEReferendums
$84,802 vol
Amendment 87
1.70x
Amendment 85
1.33x

Texas Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$72,356 vol
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
1.46x
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
2.81x

North Carolina State Senate winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$72,330 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.34x
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.66x

Texas State House winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$48,499 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.29x
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.40x

Iowa Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$87,405 vol
Brenna Bird
Brenna Bird
1.33x
Nate Willems
Nate Willems
3.29x

Arizona Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$80,031 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.10x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
8.56x

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

LIVECalifornia
$116,583 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.55x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.34x

Georgia State Senate winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$9,000 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.09x
Democratic party
Democratic party
11.7x

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

LIVEReferendums
$24,872 vol
Question 5
1.31x
Question 7
1.23x

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$41,375 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.48x
Republican party
Republican party
2.40x

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

LIVEReferendums
$52,701 vol
Proposition 144
1.67x
Proposition 320
1.48x

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

LIVEUS Elections
$56,252 vol
Yes
5.90x
No
1.09x