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Referendums

2026 Midterm Election Predictions

Election day

OverviewSenateHouseGovernorStatesMy Ballot
The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power. Learn more
More markets

Senate control forecast

DEM
REP
72%Leaning Dem

House control forecast

DEM
REP
93%Safe Dem

Texas Senate winner?

Live
Talarico71%
Paxton29%
Projected marginD +2.8

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

Nov 3
Karen Bass57%
Nithya Raman43%
$109,201,555 vol

Ohio Governor winner?

Live
Acton81%
Ramaswamy19%
Projected marginD +4.8

Florida Governor winner?

Live
Jolly37%
Donalds63%
Projected marginR +2.7

Maine Senate winner?

Live
Jackson69%
Collins31%
Projected marginD +2.1

Michigan Senate winner?

Live
El-Sayed76%
Rogers24%
Projected marginD +3.8

Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Nov 3
Democrats sweep77%
D-House, R-Senate23%
$112,476,878 vol

Who will control the Senate?

Nov 3
Democrat73%
Republican27%
$37,701,006 vol

Kansas Senate winner?

Live
Hamilton61%
Marshall39%
Projected marginD +1.5

Alaska Senate winner?

Live
Democratic70%
Republican30%

Texas Governor winner?

Live
Hinojosa35%
Abbott65%
Projected marginR +3.0

Who will control the House?

Nov 3
Democrat94%
Republican6%
$118,835,743 vol

Combos

$10 pays $19Combo · Blue WaveJames Talarico (Texas Senate winner?)5 more$215,154 vol$10 pays $36Combo · Blue TsunamiSherrod Brown (Ohio Senate winner?)4 more$25,059 vol$10 pays $75Combo · Red WaveMike Rogers (Michigan Senate winner?)5 more$116,443 vol$10 pays $373Combo · Red TsunamiMichael Whatley (North Carolina Senate winner?)4 more$378,091 vol
160 events
MarketPays outOdds

Blue wave this year?

LIVESenate
$5,458,279 vol
Yes
1.15x
No
6.29x

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

LIVEMayor
$109,190,661 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.70x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.24x

New York Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$2,176,730 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.07x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
15.6x

Blue tsunami this year?

LIVESenate
$1,704,885 vol
Yes
1.44x
No
2.89x

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

LIVEUS Elections
$2,184,765 vol
Yes
4.13x
No
1.26x

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

LIVESenate
$703,473 vol
Yes
2.40x
No
1.50x

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

LIVEUS Elections
$277,845 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.83x
Bo French
Bo French
2.01x

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$273,783 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.16x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
5.90x

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

LIVEReferendums
$118,479 vol
Yes
2.73x
No
1.48x

Florida Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$123,775 vol
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
1.31x
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
3.66x

North Carolina State House winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$119,871 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.73x
Republican party
Republican party
2.19x

Midterms: Blue trickle?

LIVESenate
$119,877 vol
Yes
1.06x
No
13.4x

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

LIVEReferendums
$85,727 vol
Amendment 81
2.98x
Proposition 134
1.31x

Texas Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$73,999 vol
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
1.46x
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
2.73x

North Carolina State Senate winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$72,330 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.34x
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.66x

Texas State House winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$48,517 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.29x
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.40x

Iowa Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$87,542 vol
Brenna Bird
Brenna Bird
1.31x
Nate Willems
Nate Willems
3.29x

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

LIVECalifornia
$117,575 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.60x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.34x

Arizona Attorney General winner?

LIVEAttorney General
$80,245 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.10x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
8.56x

Georgia State Senate winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$9,058 vol
Republican party
Republican party
1.09x
Democratic party
Democratic party
11.7x

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$42,515 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.60x
Republican party
Republican party
2.52x

Minnesota State Senate winner?

LIVEUS Elections
$44,293 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.12x
Republican party
Republican party
7.25x

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

LIVEReferendums
$53,223 vol
Proposition 144
1.65x
Proposition 320
1.46x

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

LIVEReferendums
$24,896 vol
Question 5
1.33x
Question 7
1.23x