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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.46x
Before Oct 1, 2027
2.01x
$696,870 vol

Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?

Yes
1.18x
No
4.51x
$1,867 vol

Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?

Yes
1.15x
No
5.90x
$6,250 vol

Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?

Yes
1.08x
No
8.56x
$1,584 vol

Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?

Yes
15.6x
No
1.03x
$106,382 vol

Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations?

Yes
1.33x
No
2.89x
$4,471 vol

What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump’s term?

6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
1.26x
Not nine justices
5.25x
$38,093 vol

What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear this year?

Republican National Committee v. Eakin
7.85x
Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche
18.8x
$69,659 vol

Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump’s tariffs this year?

Yes
9.41x
No
1.04x
$37,852 vol

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?

Before Jan 1, 2027
11.7x
Before Jul 1, 2027
10.4x
$83,042 vol

Will any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?

Yes
11.7x
No
--
$7,563 vol

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice in Trump’s term?

Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz
18.8x
Emil Bove
Emil Bove
46.8x
$797,812 vol

Will the House pass Supreme Court term limits?

Yes
4.73x
No
1.10x
$0 vol

Will the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump’s Presidency?

Yes
10.4x
No
1.01x
$6,076 vol

Will the SCOTUS hear a case about flag burning before 2027?

Yes
46.8x
No
--
$3,969 vol

Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump’s term ends?

Yes
13.4x
No
1.02x
$10,098 vol

Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?

Yes
1.22x
No
3.52x
$1,794 vol

Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?

Yes
2.81x
No
1.33x
$469 vol

Will SCOTUS count subscribers to a video provider’s non-video offerings as VPPA consumers?

Yes
1.33x
No
2.81x
$713 vol

Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?

Yes
1.40x
No
2.46x
$834 vol

Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?

Yes
1.14x
No
5.56x
$819 vol

Will SCOTUS hold that EAJA covers immigration-detention habeas actions?

Yes
1.34x
No
2.66x
$400 vol

Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?

Yes
1.02x
No
1.07x
$1,642 vol

Will SCOTUS require courts to consider a defendant’s specific wrongdoing in excessive-fines cases?

Yes
1.15x
No
4.13x
$32 vol