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Trump

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)

Above 320
1.86x
Above 330
3.29x
$119,146 vol

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)

Above 185
1.93x
Above 180
1.46x
$126,680 vol

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)

Above 205
2.52x
Above 200
1.50x
$132,639 vol

What countries will Marco Rubio visit this year?

Switzerland
Switzerland
4.31x
Qatar
Qatar
6.29x
$111,614 vol

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/16 - 11/22)

Above 200
1.12x
Above 195
1.10x
$798 vol

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/16 - 11/22)

Above 310
2.24x
Above 300
1.44x
$470 vol

What countries will Pope Leo visit this year?

Ukraine
Ukraine
15.6x
Brazil
Brazil
13.4x
$233,760 vol

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/16 - 11/22)

Above 190
1.76x
Above 195
2.52x
$250 vol

Which leaders will meet before 2027?

Takaichi and Xi
1.12x
Lula and Milei
5.90x
$4,401 vol

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

Rebeca Grynspan
Rebeca Grynspan
1.97x
Rafael Grossi
Rafael Grossi
6.74x
$154,493 vol

Will the IMF approve a new program for Senegal this year?

Yes
4.98x
No
1.12x
$12 vol

Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded this year?

Uganda
Uganda
4.51x
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Democratic Republic of the Congo
8.56x
$98,700 vol

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

World Trade Organization
World Trade Organization
3.40x
OECD
OECD
4.13x
$22,571 vol

How many U.S. visas will be revoked this year?

At least 250,000
1.65x
At least 300,000
2.34x
$197 vol

Will the US exit the Outer Space Treaty?

Yes
9.41x
No
1.03x
$441 vol

Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

Before Jan 20, 2029
1.83x
Before Jan 1, 2028
2.66x
$36,038 vol

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.03x
$22,122 vol

2027 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms
11.7x
Committee to Protect Journalists
Committee to Protect Journalists
23.4x
$13,591 vol

Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

Mette Frederiksen
Mette Frederiksen
2.81x
Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer
4.13x
$7,668 vol

Will Kenya and the US reach a critical minerals deal?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.29x
Before Jan 1, 2027
4.31x
$2,480 vol

Will FIFA scrap its Peace Prize at its December meeting?

Yes
2.46x
No
1.42x
$3,674 vol

Will any UN country change its capital before 2028?

Yes
4.73x
No
1.13x
$0 vol

Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027?

Yes
23.4x
No
--
$9,525 vol