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Israel & Middle East

Russia & Ukraine

Global institutions

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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

When will Canada and the EU begin association talks?

Before Jan 1, 2028

2.09x

Before Jul 1, 2027

3.52x

$11,458 vol

When will Ottawa’s Trump Avenue be renamed?

Before Sep 1, 2027

3.18x

Before Jan 1, 2027

5.25x

$7,363 vol

Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

Yes

3.66x

No

1.19x

$3,851 vol

Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?

Before 2028

4.98x

Before 2027

10.4x

$15,006 vol

Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions?

Before Jul 1, 2027

2.14x

Before Jan 1, 2027

6.74x

$2,612 vol

When will Dominic LeBlanc and Jamieson Greer meet?

Before Jan 1, 2027

1.52x

Before Dec 1, 2026

2.59x

$5,058 vol

Danielle Smith announces departure as Alberta UCP leader?

Before Jan 1, 2028

2.89x

Before Jul 1, 2027

5.25x

$26 vol

Will legislation establishing the Canada Strong Fund become law this year?

Yes

11.7x

No

1.04x

$1,094 vol

Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

Before Jul 1, 2029

2.09x

Before Jan 1, 2029

3.18x

$508 vol

When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?

Before Jan 1, 2027

6.74x

Before Dec 1, 2026

15.6x

$5,428 vol

Which Canadian provinces will call a snap election before 2028?

Manitoba

1.67x

Alberta

3.80x

$3,021 vol

When will Canada announce a snap election?

Before Jul 1, 2028

3.66x

Before Jan 1, 2028

4.98x

$11,609 vol

Will any Canadian province announce a minimum wage above C$19/hour this year?

Yes

9.41x

No

1.02x

$504 vol

Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. electric trucks at the end of 2026

Above 20%

1.09x

Above 0%

1.08x

$1,336 vol

Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

Above 20%

1.07x

Above 10%

1.05x

$1,506 vol

When will Canada gain EU associate status?

Before 2029

4.98x

Before 2028

6.29x

$7,067 vol

Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027?

Yes

15.6x

No

1.01x

$4,523 vol

50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect?

Yes

4.98x

No

1.16x

$1,546 vol

When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?

Before Apr 1, 2027

2.34x

Before Jan 1, 2027

3.66x

$6,591 vol

Will Canada and the EU agree to expanded mobility rights?

Yes

15.6x

No

1.01x

$1,332 vol

Will Alberta call a snap election?

Before Jul 1, 2027

5.56x

Before Apr 1, 2027

7.25x

$55 vol

Will Alberta announce a minimum wage increase this year?

Yes

11.7x

No

1.02x

$2 vol

When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?

Before Jul 1, 2027

1.76x

Before Apr 1, 2027

2.19x

$2 vol