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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

What countries will Pope Leo visit this year?

Ukraine
Ukraine
15.6x
Brazil
Brazil
13.4x
$233,760 vol

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

Rebeca Grynspan
Rebeca Grynspan
1.97x
Rafael Grossi
Rafael Grossi
6.74x
$154,493 vol

Will the IMF approve a new program for Senegal this year?

Yes
4.98x
No
1.12x
$12 vol

How many U.S. visas will be revoked this year?

At least 250,000
1.65x
At least 300,000
2.34x
$197 vol

Will the US exit the Outer Space Treaty?

Yes
9.41x
No
1.03x
$441 vol

Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

Mette Frederiksen
Mette Frederiksen
2.81x
Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer
4.13x
$7,668 vol

Will Kenya and the US reach a critical minerals deal?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.29x
Before Jan 1, 2027
4.31x
$2,480 vol

Will FIFA scrap its Peace Prize at its December meeting?

Yes
2.46x
No
1.42x
$3,674 vol