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Israel & Middle East

Russia & Ukraine

Global institutions

Global & shipping

SCOTUS & courts

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Magdalena Andersson out as Social Democrats leader?

Before Jan 1, 2028

1.60x

Before Jan 1, 2027

3.08x

$2,083 vol

Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?

Pablo Hernández de Cos

1.09x

Klaas Knot

9.41x

$10,863 vol

AfD in a German state government?

Before Jan 1, 2027

2.14x

Before Jul 1, 2027

1.42x

$6,279 vol

Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?

Yes

4.31x

No

1.15x

$11,228 vol

Will France declare a state of emergency?

Yes

23.4x

No

1.03x

$129,635 vol

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Poland

7.85x

France

7.25x

$26,705 vol

When will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister?

Before Dec 1, 2026

2.29x

Before Dec 19, 2026

1.52x

$1,100 vol

Laurent Nuñez announces departure as Interior Minister of France?

Yes

9.41x

No

1.03x

$391 vol

Will the government of the Netherlands collapse?

Yes

1.60x

No

1.02x

$10 vol

EU has a new member before 2030?

Yes

1.28x

No

3.18x

$8,449 vol

Will there be a successful vote of no confidence in France this year?

Yes

3.52x

No

1.31x

$844 vol

Will Trump visit Greenland?

Before Jan 20, 2029

3.66x

Before Jan 1, 2028

7.85x

$9,248 vol

How many MPs will vote for the no-confidence motion against Tusk this year?

At least 50

2.46x

At least 150

3.08x

$310 vol

Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?

Yes

15.6x

No

--

$3,118 vol

Will Turkey announce a snap election before Jan 2, 2027?

Yes

13.4x

No

1.02x

$192 vol

When will France announce a snap election?

Yes

13.4x

No

1.01x

$44,448 vol

When will Serbia call its presidential election?

Yes

--

No

13.4x

$24,711 vol

Will Saxony-Anhalt call a snap election this year?

Yes

7.25x

No

1.06x

$364 vol

Will Święczkowski be reinstated as tribunal head this year?

Yes

6.74x

No

1.06x

$99 vol

Will Poland enact a law easing its abortion ban?

Yes

10.4x

No

1.03x

$213 vol

Will Milo Yiannopoulos visit the United States?

Yes

15.6x

No

1.02x

$0 vol

Sébastien Lecornu announces departure as Prime Minister of France?

Before May 1, 2027

2.89x

Before Mar 1, 2027

3.52x

$1 vol

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Before Jul 1, 2028

1.76x

Before Jan 1, 2028

2.24x

$26,889 vol

Rob Jetten out as Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Before Jan 1, 2028

1.86x

Before Jan 1, 2029

1.42x

$13 vol