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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Will Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the royal line of succession?

Before Jul 1, 2027
5.90x
Before Jan 1, 2027
15.6x
$18,757 vol

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Council Tax Replacement
23.4x
Inheritance Tax Rise
8.56x
$7,986 vol

UK snap election announced?

Before Jan 2, 2028
3.18x
Before Jan 2, 2027
23.4x
$72,118 vol

Will the UK lift the football alcohol ban this year?

Yes
4.13x
No
1.19x
$1,633 vol

Who will lead POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026?

Labour Party
1.12x
Reform UK
7.85x
$5 vol

When will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader?

Before Jul 1, 2027
3.52x
Before Jan 1, 2027
11.7x
$3,284 vol

When will Wales call a snap election?

Before Jan 1, 2028
5.25x
Before Jul 1, 2027
23.4x
$10,464 vol

Will Wales announce an independence referendum?

Yes
3.96x
No
1.18x
$802 vol

Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?

Yes
13.4x
No
1.01x
$3,006 vol

When will the UK’s social media ban take effect?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.62x
Before Aug 1, 2027
1.25x
$2,663 vol

UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes

ROC recycle removal
1.73x
Cancellation
8.56x
$2,000 vol

When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?

Before Apr 6, 2028
2.46x
Before Apr 6, 2027
3.18x
$653 vol

Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer?

Before Jan 1, 2028
3.18x
Before Aug 1, 2027
4.13x
$5,313 vol

Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

John Healey
John Healey
8.56x
Miatta Fahnbulleh
Miatta Fahnbulleh
18.8x
$42,481 vol

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.52x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.23x
$11,502 vol

When will Scotland call a snap election?

Before Jan 1, 2028
2.89x
Before Jul 1, 2027
4.73x
$4 vol

Scottish independence referendum called?

Before 2030
3.29x
Before 2029
6.74x
$24,730 vol

Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?

Yes
5.25x
No
1.10x
$4,139 vol

When will the NHS decide to end its Palantir contract?

Before Feb 15, 2027
1.67x
Before Apr 1, 2027
1.13x
$817 vol

Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?

Yes
3.52x
No
1.23x
$4,822 vol

How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

1
1.60x
2
2.66x
$2,471 vol

Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?

Yes
13.4x
No
1.05x
$21,319 vol

Will the United Kingdom join the EU?

By Jan 1, 2040
4.51x
By Jan 1, 2035
4.98x
$3,560 vol

Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader this year?

Yes
8.56x
No
1.04x
$4,440 vol