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Politics

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SCOTUS & courts
Trump
All markets
Congress
International
Iran
Local
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Recurring
SCOTUS & courts
Trump
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 60% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 43 days to Election
51DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado98%DDelaware98%DGeorgia93%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts98%DMinnesota90%DNorth Carolina92%DNew Jersey98%DNew Mexico97%DOregon97%DRhode Island97%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire83%

Lean Democratic

Total 4
DAlaska70%DMaine68%DMichigan67%DTexas60%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 1Rep 1
RIowa60%DOhio57%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RKansas74%RNebraska69%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RFlorida88%RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 12
RAlabama98%RArkansas94%RIdaho94%RKentucky94%RLouisiana93%RMississippi92%RMontana92%ROklahoma97%RSouth Dakota93%RTennessee96%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming98%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$2,916,183 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

49
48
$1,038,528 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$789,019 vol6 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$650,042 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$541,751 vol17 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$341,085 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$252,984 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$199,863 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 2
$95,856 vol6 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 4
$66,392 vol4 markets

More markets

136 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$95,129,689 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.55x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.52x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$677,463 vol
Yes
1.20x
No
4.98x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$13,777 vol
Yes
3.29x
No
1.31x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$493,904 vol
Yes
2.09x
No
1.76x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$88,005 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.67x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
2.29x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$900,398 vol
Yes
2.98x
No
1.42x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$20,035 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.28x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
2.89x
US Elections

Georgia Lieutenant Governor winner?

$2,870 vol
Josh McLaurin
Josh McLaurin
Josh McLaurin
1.97x
Greg Dolezal
Greg Dolezal
Greg Dolezal
1.86x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Senate winner?

$2,357 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.10x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.52x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$23,441 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.62x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$185,183 vol
David Morales
1.01x
Brett Smiley
46.8x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$2,969 vol
Question 3
2.73x
Question 5
2.14x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$19,995 vol
Yes
3.52x
No
1.33x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$20,406 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.06x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.66x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$24,718 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
1.97x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
1.28x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$13,689 vol
Republican party
1.05x
Democratic party
8.56x
Secretary of State

Georgia Secretary of State winner?

$5,650 vol
Tim Fleming
Tim Fleming
Tim Fleming
1.33x
Penny Brown Reynolds
Penny Brown Reynolds
Penny Brown Reynolds
1.86x
Other US Elections

North Carolina State Senate winner?

$1,759 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.04x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
7.25x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$4,411 vol
Karen Bass, ≥2%
1.76x
Karen Bass, ≥4%
2.01x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State Senate winner?

$7,184 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.12x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.34x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$17,890 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.04x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
10.4x
US Elections

California Lieutenant Governor winner?

$100,704 vol
Fiona Ma
1.05x
Gloria Romero
--
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

$3,128 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
2.09x
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
2.46x
US Elections

Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass?

$32,947 vol
Yes
9.41x
No
1.04x
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
60%
40%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
67%
33%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
66%
34%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
56%
44%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
40%
60%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
92%
8%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
14%
86%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
32%
68%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
94%
6%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
27%
73%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
70%
30%
New Hampshire
D
Chris PappasPappas
R
John E. SununuSununu
83%
17%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
91%
9%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
12%
88%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
8%
92%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
7%
93%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
7%
93%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
6%
94%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
6%
94%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
93%
1–5 of 35
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