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TrendingElections

Politics

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Politics

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Trump
All markets
Congress
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SCOTUS & courts
Trump
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 55% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 84 days to Election
48DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado97%DDelaware98%DGeorgia92%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts98%DMinnesota94%DNorth Carolina91%DNew Jersey97%DNew Mexico97%DOregon98%DRhode Island97%DVirginia95%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire88%

Lean Democratic

Total 1
DMaine65%

Toss-up

Total 5Dem 2Rep 3
DAlaska55%RIowa60%DMichigan56%ROhio51%RTexas51%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RNebraska72%

Likely Republican

Total 3
RFlorida87%RKansas81%RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 12
RAlabama97%RArkansas93%RIdaho95%RKentucky92%RLouisiana93%RMississippi92%RMontana90%ROklahoma96%RSouth Dakota94%RTennessee97%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming97%
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
49%
51%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
65%
35%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
91%
9%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
55%
45%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
50%
50%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
39%
61%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
92%
8%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Republican partyRepublican
13%
87%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
29%
71%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
54%
46%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
9%
91%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
20%
80%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
88%
12%
Florida
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
14%
86%
Minnesota
D
Democratic (DFL) partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
91%
9%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
7%
93%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
8%
92%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
7%
93%
New Jersey
D
Cory BookerBooker*
R
Justin MurphyMurphy
98%
2%
Tennessee
D
Marquita BradshawBradshaw
R
Bill HagertyHagerty*
3%
97%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

More markets

128 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$91,206,989 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.60x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.40x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$669,143 vol
Yes
3.08x
No
1.40x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$349,919 vol
Yes
1.31x
No
3.66x
US Elections

Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?

$962 vol
Yes
1.23x
No
1.90x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$12,595 vol
Yes
2.40x
No
1.57x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$325,593 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.62x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$4,178 vol
Yes
2.34x
No
1.50x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$3,156 vol
Proposition 38
1.73x
Proposition 5
1.70x
US Elections

Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?

$39,005 vol
Governor
1.20x
Attorney General
1.10x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$15,800 vol
Yes
4.51x
No
1.23x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$13,317 vol
Yes
1.70x
No
2.19x
Other US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$1,533 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.34x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.81x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$38,034 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.52x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.14x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,103 vol
Republican Party
1.18x
Democratic Party
4.73x
US Elections

Michigan Attorney General winner?

$6,539 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.28x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.40x
US Elections

Connecticut Attorney General winner?

$1,111 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.01x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
15.6x
Other US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$213 vol
Republican party
1.16x
Democratic party
5.56x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$12,871 vol
Republican party
1.04x
Democratic party
10.4x
US Elections

Wisconsin Secretary of State winner?

$2,322 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.29x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.18x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$1,457 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.67x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.01x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$22 vol
Ballot Measure 2
1.97x
Ballot Measure 3
1.28x
US Elections

Michigan Secretary of State winner?

$14,744 vol
Democratic party
1.10x
Republican party
6.29x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$3,515 vol
Bo French
1.33x
Jon Rosenthal
2.98x
Other US Elections

Nevada State Senate winner?

$7,328 vol
Democratic party
1.01x
Republican party
15.6x

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
50
$1,970,349 vol10 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$643,117 vol2 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$381,369 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

50
49
$346,826 vol15 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Paxton defeats Talarico
Talarico defeats Paxton
$263,976 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
$235,373 vol17 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$98,874 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$59,190 vol7 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 3
$58,178 vol4 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$58,127 vol6 markets