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Politics

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Congress
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SCOTUS & courts
Trump
All markets
Congress
International
Iran
Local
NYC
Recurring
SCOTUS & courts
Trump
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 52% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 63 days to Election
50DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats48
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado96%DDelaware95%DGeorgia93%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts97%DMinnesota91%DNorth Carolina91%DNew Jersey98%DNew Mexico97%DOregon97%DRhode Island98%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire83%

Lean Democratic

Total 3
DAlaska64%DMaine69%DMichigan64%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 2Rep 0
DOhio55%DTexas51%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RIowa62%RNebraska69%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RKansas84%RSouth Carolina88%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama95%RArkansas93%RFlorida92%RIdaho96%RKentucky94%RLouisiana94%RMississippi93%RMontana90%ROklahoma96%RSouth Dakota96%RTennessee95%RWest Virginia96%RWyoming99%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$2,318,742 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

50
49
$707,671 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$648,361 vol2 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$521,105 vol6 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Texas
Texas
Texas
$375,553 vol17 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Paxton defeats Talarico
Talarico defeats Paxton
$293,282 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$223,458 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$80,712 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$76,042 vol6 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 3
$60,341 vol4 markets
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
50%
50%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
69%
31%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
63%
37%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
55%
45%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
39%
61%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
91%
9%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
93%
7%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
13%
87%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
64%
36%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
32%
68%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
7%
93%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
7%
93%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
91%
9%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
18%
82%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
83%
17%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
6%
94%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
9%
91%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
5%
95%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
93%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
5%
95%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

More markets

131 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$92,968,778 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.48x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.81x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$474,798 vol
Yes
1.28x
No
3.96x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$27,467 vol
David Morales
1.79x
Brett Smiley
1.97x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$810,151 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.42x
US Elections

Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass?

$31,459 vol
Yes
1.05x
No
1.13x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$46,517 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.44x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.46x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$15,691 vol
Yes
3.96x
No
1.26x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$380,930 vol
Yes
2.40x
No
1.60x
Other US Elections

Missouri State Senate District 8 winner?

$3,337 vol
Jon Patterson
1.28x
Keri Ingle
2.98x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$18,727 vol
Yes
1.67x
No
2.24x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$4,405 vol
Yes
2.40x
No
1.48x
Attorney General

Wisconsin Attorney General winner?

$19,963 vol
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
1.16x
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
4.51x
US Elections

Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?

$40,290 vol
Secretary of State
1.10x
State Superintendent of Schools
1.10x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$15,615 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.26x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.80x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$16,250 vol
Yes
3.80x
No
1.26x
Secretary of State

Arizona Secretary of State winner?

$2,751 vol
Adrian Fontes
Adrian Fontes
Adrian Fontes
1.16x
Alexander Kolodin
Alexander Kolodin
Alexander Kolodin
5.56x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$10,776 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.28x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
3.66x
Attorney General

Delaware Attorney General winner?

$271 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.05x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
7.85x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$3,839 vol
Bo French
1.38x
Jon Rosenthal
2.66x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,186 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
3.96x
Other US Elections

Ohio State House winner?

$6,636 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.12x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
5.90x
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State Senate winner?

$7,605 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.38x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.66x
Other US Elections

Alaska State Senate winner?

$1,470 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.12x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
5.25x
Other US Elections

Michigan State House winner?

$1,965 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.42x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.52x