What are the latest 2026 midterm election predictions?
As of October 18, 2026: Kalshi traders give Democrats a 62% chance of controlling the Senate after the 2026 midterms. Kalshi traders give Democrats a 90% chance of controlling the House after the 2026 midterms. The most traded competitive 2026 midterm race on Kalshi is Texas Senate, where James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 62% to 39%. Kalshi traders favor Democrats in 18 and Republicans in 17 of the 35 Senate races in 2026; 2 of those are toss-ups (Iowa and Maine). Kalshi traders favor Democrats in 233 and Republicans in 201 of the 434 House races in 2026; 4 of those are toss-ups (FL-22, IA-02, MI-04 and VA-01). Kalshi traders favor Democrats in 21 and Republicans in 15 of the 36 governor races in 2026; 2 of those are toss-ups (Georgia and Nevada). The most traded 2026 Senate combo on Kalshi is “How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?”, with $5 million traded. Kalshi lists 161 more US election markets beyond its Senate, House and governor races.
Who is favored to win the 2026 midterms?
As of October 18, 2026, Kalshi traders favor Democrats to win the Senate, at 62%, and Democrats to win the House, at 90%. The odds are live prices on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, and change as traders react to polls, fundraising and news. See the Senate control market.
As of October 18, 2026, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House in the 2026 midterms, and Republicans an 11% chance. Those odds are the live prices of each party's contract on Kalshi, and they move as traders buy and sell. See the House control market.
What are the odds Democrats win the Senate?
As of October 18, 2026, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the Senate in the 2026 midterms, and Republicans a 38% chance. Those odds are the live prices of each party's contract on Kalshi, and they move as traders buy and sell. See the Senate control market.
Where do these midterm odds come from?
The odds on this page are live prices on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, where $208 million has traded on 2026 Senate, House and governor markets as of October 18, 2026. Each price is what traders are paying for that outcome right now, and Kalshi publishes how well its prices have matched results. See how Kalshi is regulated and Kalshi's methodology.
How accurate are prediction markets for elections?
Across 2,243,741 resolved Kalshi markets from 2021 to mid-2026, prices were well calibrated: outcomes priced at a given chance happened about that often. Accuracy improves as a market nears resolution, with Brier scores falling from about 0.09 three months out to below 0.02 at close. See Kalshi's calibration study.
How do midterm prediction markets work?
Each market asks a yes-or-no question, such as which party will control the Senate. A contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it doesn't, so its price in cents reads as the percent chance traders give that outcome. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and prices move as traders buy and sell. See Kalshi's guide to prediction markets.
